141st Kentucky Derby: Free PPs and Picks
TwinSpires.com is proud to offer FREE Brisnet Ultimate PPs and the Daily Selections for the 141st Kentucky Derby.
The Derby is the 11th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2 and goes to post at approximately 6:34 p.m. Eastern Time.
FREE PPs for the Kentucky Derby
BRISNET.COM DAILY SELECTIONS FOR CHURCHILL DOWNS, RACE 11 - KENTUCKY DERBY 141
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8/1 | Has visited the winner’s circle in four of five career starts thus far with three of those wins coming versus graded competition. The chestnut’s lone defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) back in November when he finished second, beaten by 6 1/2 lengths, as the favorite. The $1.6 million purchase (Ocala Breeders’ Sales March 2014) is a perfect two for two since returning from the layoff after that effort which includes an easy five length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and a very nice win last out in the Bluegrass S. (G1) at Keeneland in which he pressed the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by three lengths while posting a 102 BRIS Speed rating. This one possesses a pedigree that says he should easily handle the distance as progeny of sire GIANT’S CAUSEWAY have an “Average Winning Distance” of 8.3 furlongs while the AWD for dam sire UNBRIDLED’S SONG, who finished fifth as the favorite in the 1996 Derby, is 7.2 furlongs. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who won the 2010 Derby with SUPER SAVER, wins with 24% of his runners making their third start off the layoff and 20% of the graded stakes races he has a runner in. John Velazquez, who guided 2011 Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM to victory, has been aboard for all five of Carpe Diem’s starts and gets the call again today. He has combined with Pletcher for a 41% win rate over the last 60 days and he wins 28% of the route races he has a mount in. | |
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5/2 | Is half of a powerful one-two punch from the barn of three time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert and the conditioner pulled off the rare feat of having back to back winners when SILVER CHARM took the victory in 1997 followed by REAL QUIET in 1998. Baffert’s next three-year-old to capture the “Run for the Roses” came in 2002 when WAR EMBLEM took the victory with Victor Espinoza in the irons – the same jockey who will be piloting American Pharoh today. The $300k purchase (Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Aug. 2013) has visited the winner’s circle in each of his last four starts, three of which came versus Grade 1 competition at three different tracks and on two different surfaces. The bay has been dominating in both starts since returning from the layoff, each of which came at Oaklawn. After leading from gate to wire for a 6 1/4 length victory in the Rebel S. (G2) back in March, he unleashed a new dimension to his game last out when he rallied from three lengths off the pace and took control on command to claim the victory by eight lengths in the Arkansas Derby (G1). This versatility in running styles should allow him to be well placed early regardless of the pace scenario today. The son of PIONEEROF THE NILE posted a nice 102 BRIS Speed rating in his latest effort and he is capable of better in his third start back. Baffert wins with 25% of his runners making their third start off the layoff and with 32% of his runners shipping to another circuit. Espinoza has been on board for all four victories and he has combined with Baffert for a 44% win rate over the last 60 days. | |
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3/1 | Enters the Derby exactly as his sire did – undefeated. The difference is that while 2008 Derby winner BIG BROWN came to Churchill looking to go a perfect four for four over the course of his brief career, Dortmund has yet to face defeat in six career performances. In his latest effort, the chestnut bobbled a bit coming out of the gate but still shot to the lead and improved his position from there to cross the wire 4 1/4 lengths clear of the field while posting a 106 BRIS Speed rating in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). While the colt has won each of his last two starts in front running fashion he has in the past shown the ability to stalk which should allow him to be well placed early regardless of the pace scenario. An added bonus for this one is that he has experience over the Churchill strip having taken on $75k allowance/optional claiming competition here last November while making his first attempt at a route in an effort where he stalked the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by 7 3/4 lengths. The colt’s next four wins all came versus graded competition, two of which were against Grade 1 company. Trainer Bob Baffert wins with 29% of his runners next out after winning their start prior and 24% of the graded races he has a runner in. Martin Garcia has been aboard for all six of his prior starts and gets the call again today. He has combined with the conditioner for a 26% win rate over the last 60 days and he wins 19% of the route races he has a mount in. This one tops the field in BRIS Prime Power and also possesses the best BRIS Class rating. | |
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12/1 | Has yet to finish worse than second in five career starts which include a couple of trips to the winner’s circle. The bay had the misfortune of crossing paths with Dortmund while making his first two starts versus graded competition but he acquitted himself well on each occasion as he missed by only a head each time. He no longer had his rival to deal with last out in his second start back from the layoff and dominated in the Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park in an effort in which he vied for the lead early before taking command on his way to an easy 14 length victory under little more than a hand ride while posting a 101 BRIS Speed rating. Trainer Simon Callaghan wins with 14% of his runners shipping to another circuit and with 22% of his runners next out after winning their start prior. Three time Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens (WINNING COLORS 1988, THUNDER GULCH 1995, and SILVER CHARM 1997) has been aboard in both starts since this one returned from the layoff and he gets the call again today. He wins 19% of the route races he has a mount in. | |
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15/1 | Finally got a clean trip last out in his third start back from the layoff. After being bumped at the start in the Holy Bull S. (G3) before crossing the wire in second, beaten by 5 1/2 lengths, and then being checked and bumped in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) before crossing the wire in fourth, beaten by 4 3/4 lengths, the gray got a clean trip last out in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) at Aqueduct. The son of TAPIT followed in the footsteps of his sire as he claimed the victory in the event in an effort where he rallied from 4 1/2 lengths off the pace and finished well late to claim the victory by two lengths while posting a best Last Race BRIS Speed rating of 107. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin wins with 26% of his runners shipping to another circuit and with an equal percentage of his runners next out after winning their start prior. In addition, he wins 13% of the graded stakes races he has a runner in. Joel Rosario gets the call and he wins 15% of the route races he has a mount in. | |
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12/1 | Didn’t race as a two-year-old but is a perfect three for three this year with all of his wins coming at Gulfstream. The connections picked a tough spot for the bay to make his graded debut last out but he performed impressively as he pressed the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by 1 1/2 lengths in the Florida Derby (G1) while posting a 105 BRIS Speed rating in his second start back from the layoff. The bay could be capable of even better in his third start back. The $400k purchase (Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic Sale May 2014) is more than capable of handling today’s distance as sire AFLEET ALEX finished third, beaten by only a length, in the 2005 Derby before dominating in both the Preakness S. (G1) and the 12 furlong Belmont S. (G1). Trainer Todd Pletcher wins with 29% of his runners next out after winning their start prior and with 25% of his runners shipping to another circuit. Javier Castellano gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 23% win rate over the last 60 days. The jockey wins 31% of the route races he has a mount in. |