Bears vs. Packers: NFL Week 6 betting odds, preview, and pick
Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)
October 15th, 2021
Arguably the most historic matchup in the NFL is the Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers rivalry, and on Sunday, we'll see the 203rd meeting in the series.
The Packers are 4-1, after they started the season with a lopsided loss to the Saints, and are also 4-1 against the spread. The Chicago Bears are 3-2 overall and ATS, so this is a key game for the NFC North race.
Let’s take a close look at the game and break it all down.
Does Justin Fields make the Bears offense better?
Following an injury in Week 2 to starting quarterback Andy Dalton, rookie Justin Fields has been plugged in and looks to have the position secured for the foreseeable future.
His first two games were a bumpy ride, but Fields has smoothed things out since.
In relief of Dalton against Cincinnati, Fields completed six of his 13 passes, for 60 yards and an interception. In his first start, at Cleveland, he completed just six of his 20 attempts, for 68 yards. Then he completed 11 of his 19 passes, for 209 yards, against the Lions and connected on 12 of his 20 attempts, for 111 yards, against the Raiders. He has also added 56 yards on the ground.
Justin Fields' first career passing TD 👏
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 10, 2021
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/OpiyFWVZ91
While Fields is clearly an athletic talent, the numbers paint a clear picture. Fields is not yet ready to be an average or above-average quarterback in the NFL, and it doesn’t help that he has one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
While Fields offers mobility, it doesn’t produce much more output, as the Bears rank last in the NFL in yards per play. They also rank 30th in points per play and 31st in yards per pass attempt.
This is a hopeless offense, and Fields doesn’t make it better.
Bears vs. Packers injury report
| Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers |
|---|
WR Allen Robinson: Questionable (ankle) | RB Aaron Jones: Questionable (ankle) |
WR Darnell Mooney: Questionable (groin) | TE Robert Tonyan: Questionable (knee) |
RB Damien Williams: Out (COVID-19) | CB Jaire Alexander: Out (shoulder) |
LB Khalil Mack: Questionable (foot) | LB Za’Darius Smith: Out (back) |
CB Kevin King: Questionable (shoulder) |
Bears and Packers betting trends
- Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four games
- The Packers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 matchups with the Bears
- The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series
- The Under is 4-0 ATS in the last four Bears games
- Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against NFC North opponents
The Packers offense will win the day
The Packers' narrow victory over the Bengals last week was punctuated by Mason Crosby’s game-winning kick, but had they been able to trade missed field goal attempts for touchdowns, the game would have been a blowout.
Mason Crosby redeems himself with the game-winner!
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 10, 2021
Packers survive the Bengals in OT.
(via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/EN6UvKT1re
Now the Packers get to face a troubled Bears offense that has key injuries at skill positions and a struggling offensive line. The Packers pass rush leaves a lot to be desired, with Za’Darius Smith on the sideline, but this is not a formidable offensive foe.
Aaron Rodgers will have a big day with star receiver Davante Adams and run away from their long-time rival.
Score prediction: Packers 27, Bears 17
NFL Week 6 pick: Packers -6
Bears vs. Packers pick powered by The Quant Edge
Our predictive engine is calling for the Packers to win the game, but for the Bears to cover the spread.