2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic international scouting report: Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn

Thunder Snow (c) Dubai Racing Club

While it’s nothing new for high-class Europeans to try the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the gambit is typically an afterthought, and the discussion centers upon their chances of transferring international turf form to the dirt. This year is unusual in that just one of the invaders fits that profile – Roaring Lion. The others are not only old hands on the surface, but also enter with the benefit of an American prep.

So we’ll start our international homework by scouting out the dirt newcomer before looking at the more familiar protagonists.

ROARING LION: As the top-rated horse in the Classic according to the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings, the winner of four straight Group 1s would pose a major threat if he runs up to form. Under John Gosden’s masterful tutelage, Roaring Lion has developed from a talented but wayward juvenile, who nearly threw away last fall’s Royal Lodge (G2) and then let Saxon Warrior come back on him in the Racing Post Trophy (G1), into Europe’s premier three-year-old colt.

Forget his first two efforts of the season. His distant third in the Craven (G3) can be chalked up to the hostile British winter that compromised his training, and he was still racing himself fit when a solid fifth to Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas (G1), despite being somewhat isolated on the stands’ side.

Everything clicked, mentally and physically, third time out in the Dante (G2) at York, where Roaring Lion displayed a superb turn of foot to win decisively. His performance was a harbinger that about 1 1/4 miles was his ideal trip.

For that very reason, the French Derby (G1) was the classic to suit him best, but there’s only one Epsom, so his Qatar Racing connections gave him a chance at the 1 1/2-mile Derby (G1). Although he’s by Kitten’s Joy, Roaring Lion likely gets his lethal burst of speed from granddam Cambiocorsa, queen of Santa Anita’s downhill turf sprints, and there wasn’t enough stamina from his sire to carry him home in front. Rallying boldly before stalling late, he nevertheless underlined his class in third.

Roaring Lion’s been unbeatable since, all in major events versus elders. Back down to his optimal 1 1/4 miles, a more professional Roaring Lion got up to deny Saxon Warrior in the Eclipse (G1). He was downright imperious on his return to York for the Juddmonte International (G1), visually similar to the course-and-distance Dante, only this time he was pulverizing a far better field including Poet’s Word, Benbatl, and Thunder Snow.

His ensuing victories in the Irish Champion (G1) at Leopardstown and the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) at Ascot were much closer, but compelling for different reasons. The race shape was all against him in Ireland, where old nemesis Saxon Warrior had the scenario drawn up by playbook. Roaring Lion still had the terrific acceleration to run him down. If his feat was assisted by Saxon Warrior’s career-ending injury, his closing rush was remarkable enough.