2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf international scouting report: Just Wonderful, East top European hopes

Unlike the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), where Europeans tend to prosper, the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) has been a haven for the home team. North American-based fillies have won eight of 10 runnings. Chad Brown is responsible for exactly half that total, and he has an exceptional case to make it five with Irish-bred Newspaperofrecord on Breeders’ Cup “Future Stars Friday.”

Europe’s undeterred with five contenders in the main body of the field, plus a useful also-eligible. The best challenges to the favorite may come from the first two listed here.

JUST WONDERFUL: Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won this race yet, but he just missed in the inaugural, and has had some hard-luck trips. The master of Ballydoyle tries again with another talented blueblood in Just Wonderful, a Dansili half-sister to Turf Sprint (G1) hopeful Lost Treasure and a niece of Filly & Mare Turf (G1) contender Athena.

Descended from the mighty Urban Sea, and thus a maternal relative of Galileo and Sea the Stars, Just Wonderful delivered one of the most visually impressive maiden wins of season. It was not the margin, but the manner of her success: tucked in the pack one second, whizzing to the front the next. That effort at the Curragh made her the favorite for Royal Ascot’s Albany (G3), but she fizzled behind Main Edition and La Pelosa in a case of too much, too soon.

While Just Wonderful did better when a mildly closing third to Marie's Diamond (Juvenile Turf [G1]) in the 6 1/2-furlong Anglesey (G3), the stretch-out to a mile made a difference next time in the Flame of Tara (G3). She put it all together with a last-to-first performance, on good-to-yielding ground, and reasserted her claims as a proper classic prospect. The form was boosted when third-placer Fleeting came back to win the May Hill (G2). Yet Just Wonderful did not follow through herself, running a flat seventh in the Moyglare Stud (G1).

Just Wonderful wheeled back 12 days later in the Rockfel (G2) at Newmarket and regained her terrific turn of foot in the seven-furlong “Win and You’re In.” She steamrolled Main Edition to prove the Albany result all wrong.

#RUKMomentOfTheDay: Just Wonderful upheld family honour when winning the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket, seven years after her dam Wading achieved the same feat.

Watch all the finishes from today for free in our results and replay section. https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/5qjaolKd1c

— Racing UK (@racing_uk) September 28, 2018

Interestingly, Just Wonderful’s dam, Wading, also won the Rockfel, but never raced again. O’Brien recently commented that jockey Ryan Moore remembered Wading, an indication of her glowing reputation. Just Wonderful clearly has inherited her dam’s high level of ability. Now all she needs to work on is consistency.

EAST: The first offspring of unbeaten phenom Frankel to compete in the Breeders’ Cup, Prix Thomas Bryon (G3) heroine East is two-for-two herself versus males. Her poor post 14 doesn’t necessarily have to dampen enthusiasm, since new rider Jamie Spencer might opt to drop back, make one run, and finish like a proverbial freight train.

After topping the Goresbridge breeze-up sale at €315,000, East attracted support in her debut despite facing a field full of experienced males, including two winners. The 9-4 second choice was the only debutante in that Hamilton novice, but you wouldn't know it the way she lowered her head, as if attacking the ground, and rolled past on the soft going. The beaten favorite, Happy Power, came back to romp in a Doncaster nursery. 

East chose to beat the boys in France last time. Looking a bit keen early in the Thomas Bryon, the rider got her to ease back, tipped out, and mowed them down in hand. 

The collateral form indicates it’s a good thing Juvenile Turf contender The Black Album opted to sit the Bryon out and train up to the Breeders’ Cup. Bryon third-placer Pure Zen had previously won the Francois Boutin, where The Black Album was a subpar fourth, and Ecolo, who just missed to The Black Album in the Prix La Rochette (G3), was a disappointing last as the favorite behind East. There’s also a tie-in with British stakes form courtesy of Bryon fourth Dubai Dominion, who was coming off a second to well-regarded Sangarius at Doncaster.

Since trainer Kevin Ryan immediately mentioned the Breeders’ Cup as a target, a trip to Louisville is no afterthought for this 20-1 overlay.

THE MACKEM BULLET: If you love O’Brien’s Fairyland as I do, the filly who's come close to beating her in both the Lowther (G2) and Cheveley Park (G1) logically demands respect. The hesitation is whether the daughter of Society Rock will duplicate that form in her first start beyond six furlongs, especially in testing conditions that likely put premium on stamina. 

Trained by Brian Ellison, also known for his success in the National Hunt game, The Mackem Bullet started out at five furlongs in a good Carlisle novice versus the boys. She stayed on nicely for sixth to Cosmic Law, the future Woodcote winner, and third-placer True Mason would go on to place in a trio of Group stakes highlighted by the Prix Morny (G1). The Mackem Bullet was then a troubled third in a Musselburgh conditions, also at five, but has thrived ever since going up to six furlongs.

Back at Carlisle, The Mackem Bullet vied early and drew off in a romp. Scratched from a York nursery with a vet's certificate, she was in fine fettle only two weeks later in the Princess Margaret (G3), where she was unlucky not to be second. The winner, Angel's Hideaway, drifted across her path while sweeping clear, and “Mackem” had her momentum briefly interrupted.

Reportedly a private sale to American interests was in the works, but didn't go through. Mackem made them regret it when she nearly pulled a 25-1 upset in the Lowther, giving Fairyland all that she could handle and possibly edging her, until the camera revealed she missed by a pixel. Now she was a truly hot commodity, and Katsumi Yoshida prevailed to buy her. 

My initial thought was that Mackem was fortunate to get that close at York, considering Fairyland hadn't raced in a couple of months and the whole Ballydoyle yard was just emerging from the virus. Apparently that was a widespread thought because Mackem was ignored at 25-1 again in their rematch. But Mackem backed up that effort in the Cheveley Park. Pushing Fairyland to hold her off by a neck, she also outfinished Juvenile Turf Sprint contender So Perfect.