2018 Breeders' Cup Mile international scouting report: Polydream, Expert Eye, O'Brien battalion, and more

With top miler Alpha Centauri retired due to injury and the rest of the European division lacking a standout, the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) could continue its trend in favor of American-based runners. Only one international has scored in the last seven years (Karakontie in 2014), and if it weren’t for the legendary Goldikova (2008-10), the Europeans’ stats would look even worse over the past decade.

Yet the invasion cannot be discounted, not only because of its sheer size (eight in the main body of the field), but also because there are a few sophomores eligible to jump up on the day.

POLYDREAM: The shortcut to sifting through them all is to focus on France, where 10 of the 13 international Mile winners were trained. Polydream, the only French shipper in Saturday’s renewal, represents the same connections as Goldikova.

A Wertheimer et Frere homebred trained by Freddie Head, Polydream brings respectable credentials, but not as overwhelmingly persuasive a profile as Goldikova at the comparable stage of her career. The comparison isn’t quite fair, since Polydream’s had bad luck along the way.

Polydream won her first two starts emphatically, handing Laurens her only loss as a juvenile in last summer’s Prix du Calvados (G3), before being upset by Wild Illusion (Filly & Mare Turf [G1]) in the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1). Her trip could have accounted for it, since Polydream got into the clear belatedly and closed for second, but she reportedly exited the race with an injury.

Sidelined by surgery, the Oasis Dream filly was not near ready to fire her best in her French 1000 Guineas (G1) comeback. She pulled hard, uncharacteristically refusing to settle, and had nothing left when gathered up last of 14 across the line – the definition of a toss-out.

Polydream was a dramatically different proposition just a few weeks later. Head pitched her in versus older males in the June 2 Prix du Palais-Royal (G3). Fitter and cutting back to seven furlongs, she showed her former acceleration to outkick such useful yardsticks as defending champion Inns of Court, Jimmy Two Times, and Karar. Instead of trying a mile again, Polydream shortened up a tad for the about 6 1/2-furlong Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1), where she mowed down an in-the-clear James Garfield. Left sputtering in her wake was a whole crew of Group 1 sprinters, from The Tin Man to City Light and Sands of Mali.

Favored in the Prix de la Foret (G1) on Arc Day, Polydream never saw daylight in the seven-furlong affair. She was boxed in from her inside draw, and forced to check off heels, before winding up seventh to One Master. The result is meaningless for her Mile prospects. Remember that Karakontie was rebounding from a luckless Foret himself.

The difference is that Karakontie was already a classic winner over a mile. Polydream seeks her first win at this trip. Yet if she can finish a closing second in the Boussac on soft ground at Chantilly, while injuring herself, she should handle a two-turn mile at Churchill Downs.

EXPERT EYE: The Juddmonte homebred is arguably the better chance of the pair (along with Mustashry) representing Sir Michael Stoute, who’s trying to become just the second British-based trainer to win the Mile. The only to succeed so far is the retiring Luca Cumani, courtesy of Barathea (1994) right here at Churchill.

Like Polydream, Expert Eye has racked up eye-catching wins going shorter. The Acclamation colt, out of a half-sister to brilliant champion Special Duty from the family of Sightseek and Tates Creek, made a mockery of last summer’s Vintage (G2) at Glorious Goodwood. But Expert Eye missed his next objective thanks to a dirty scope, and when lining up in the Dewhurst (G1), failed to live up to his hype. He did not look happy in the preliminaries at Newmarket, acted up in the gate, and faded to last as the odds-on favorite.

Expert Eye sent mixed messages at the beginning of 2018 as well. An encouraging second in the Greenham (G3) to the aforementioned James Garfield, he was given his chance in the 2000 Guineas (G1), only to disappoint at Newmarket again when 10th of 14.

Since then at other venues, Expert Eye has been the soul of consistency. He relaxed beautifully at the back before slamming them in Royal Ascot’s Jersey S. (G3), shaping like a Group 1 animal on the class drop, and later dispatched such veterans as Gordon Lord Byron and Suedois (the fourth in last year’s Mile) in the August 25 City of York (G3).