2022 KDFW Pool 3: 'All others' 2-1, Smile Happy holds at 8-1

The top two betting choices in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) had a familiar look. Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Smile Happy maintained his status as the individual favorite at 8-1, his price at the conclusion of Pool 1 from Thanksgiving weekend as well as Pool 2 that ran Jan. 21-23. The mutuel field of “All Others” continued to hold sway as the most popular option overall, closing at 2-1, up from 9-5 in Pool 2 and its 3-5 odds in Pool 1.

The biggest market mover was Classic Causeway, whose impressive victory in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs came squarely in the middle of Pool 3 that spanned Friday through Super Bowl Sunday evening at 6 p.m. (ET). His odds accordingly plunged to 13-1, from a 50-1 morning line. Classic Causeway had been a 44-1 shot in Pool 1 and 51-1 in Pool 2.

Also gaining steam was Mo Donegal, closing at 14-1 from a morning line of 30-1. A 37-1 chance in Pool 1, prior to his Remsen (G2) win, Mo Donegal was 23-1 in Pool 2. His hard-charging third in the Feb. 5 Holy Bull (G3) boosted his appeal to bettors, who preferred Mo Donegal to the two in front of him at Gulfstream Park. Holy Bull winner White Abarrio drifted from an 8-1 morning line to close at 18-1, although that was a lot more action than he got as a 171-1 longshot in Pool 2. Holy Bull runner-up Simplification didn’t move the needle from Pool 2; once again in Pool 3, his 30-1 morning line increased to 43-1 at the close of trade.

Emmanuel, a smart allowance winner at Tampa on Jan. 30, started at 10-1 in Pool 3 and finished at 15-1. That was in the neighborhood of his 17-1 price in Pool 2.

Two newcomers to Pool 3 – San Vicente (G2) victor Forbidden Kingdom and Withers (G3) winner Early Voting and – also floated a bit from their morning lines. Forbidden Kingdom, pegged at 10-1, closed at 18-1, and Early Voting went from 12-1 to 19-1.

Breeders’ Futurity (G1) romper Rattle N Roll was bet down from a 30-1 morning line to 19-1 as he works toward a comeback. His final odds were comparable in the first two KDFW opportunities (21-1 in Pool 1 and 20-1 in Pool 2).

Remsen near-misser Zandon likewise found support, into 21-1 from his morning line of 30-1, ahead of Saturday’s Risen Star (G2). The first of the scoring races worth 50 points to the winner, the Fair Grounds feature will have a significant impact on the Derby picture, with Smile Happy reappearing versus Zandon, Slow Down Andy (23-1), Epicenter (24-1), and Pappacap (31-1).

Pool 3 handled a total of $328,461 ($235,012 in the Win pool and $93,448 in Exactas). Complete Pool 3 results, as well as exacta probables, are available on the Future Wager page on kentuckyderby.com.

KDFW Pool 4 will take place in a month, Mar. 11-13, concurrently with the single Kentucky Oaks Future Wager. The final Pool 5 runs Mar. 31-Apr. 2.