A longshot to consider in the West Virginia Derby

You don’t need me to tell you #9 Mr. Money is the horse to beat in Saturday’s $500,000 West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer. That much should be apparent to even a casual handicapper glancing at the past performances.

Mr. Money has earned a ton of purse money beating up on grade 3 competition this spring and summer. He cruised to victory by 5 1/4 lengths in the Pat Day Mile (G3) at Churchill Downs, then scored by 6 1/2 lengths in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) over the same track. Last time out he managed to overcome a wide trip and dodge his way around a loose horse to win the Indiana Derby (G3) by 2 1/2 lengths at Indiana Grand, where he earned a career-best 103 Brisnet speed figure.

Mr. Money is widely expected to add a West Virginia Derby victory to his résumé, in large part because he has the tactical speed to work out a clean trip in a large field filled with late runners. But he’ll be a short price in the wagering, and part of me wonders if #2 Grumps Little Tots might be capable of springing an upset.

Conditioned by Jason Servis, Grumps Little Tots brings a promising race record into the West Virginia Derby. Three starts back, while stretching out to a mile for the first time, he broke his maiden by 6 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct, a performance that warranted a start in the Wood Memorial (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Unfortunately, Grumps Little Tots broke a step slowly in the Wood Memorial and was squeezed out of position, which caused him to fall 16 lengths off the early pace. He never rallied, but Grumps Little Tots showed more potential in the 1 1/6-mile Easy Goer Stakes on June 8 at Belmont Park. Reserved in fourth place behind slow fractions, Grumps Little Tots had little chance to catch the frontrunning winner, and he also encountered a little interference down the lane. Despite these obstacles Grumps Little Tots rallied to cross the wire third and was promoted to second via the disqualification of the runner-up.

I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Grumps Little Tots. In a field packed with late runners, I think he has enough speed to secure a more forwardly placed position than usual. A ground-saving trip from post 2 should be in the offing, and outside of Mr. Money, this doesn’t look like the toughest race on paper.

For these reasons I’m going to box Grumps Little Tots in the exacta with Mr. Money, spending a little more on the lower-paying combination with Mr. Money on top. Should Grumps Little Tots finish in the top two, we could be rewarded with a nice payoff.

$13 exacta: 9 with 2 $7 exacta: 2 with 9

Good luck!