A pair of Churchill Downs picks for Thursday, June 4

James Scully

June 4th, 2020

Churchill Downs offers a nine-race program on Thursday, and I like a couple horses from a betting perspective.

Race 2 (1:34 p.m. ET)

#4 Delp should improve in his second start for trainer Tom Amoss. The 3-year-old was stuck in traffic on the first turn and forced to swing extremely wide into the stretch in his last start at Oaklawn Park, and he performed admirably to finish third. He loomed as a threat with a sixteenth of a mile remaining but came up a little short

Over the last five years, Amoss wins at a 41% clip in the second start off a claim. It‘s a specialty for the outstanding horseman. By comparison, Amoss has captured only 3-of-21 starts (14%) in the first start off a claim this year.

Delp dropped far back in the early stages last time, but he likes to race more in striking range and should receive a better setup Thursday, with little speed in the eight-horse field.

I like the switch to jockey James Graham, who has won three of his last seven starts for Amoss at Churchill, and Delp is listed as the 5-1 co-third choice on the morning line.

Race 7 (4:14 p.m. ET)

After he tried turf in the Cutler Bay S. at Gulfstream, #5 Moon Over Miami will take an enormous drop in class in this entry-level allowance. I expect him to run much better for trainer Bill Mott.

Mott tested his pupil against top 3-year-old turf horses last time out, but Moon Over Miami did not look comfortable, stuck inside during the opening stages, and dropped back to 11th in the backstretch. Once the jockey got him off the fence and in the clear for the final furlong, the colt finished with interest and was beaten only 4 1/4 lengths by Decorated Invader.

I like the switch to jockey Martin Garcia, who has already won a race for Mott this meet, and the aggressive pilot figures to put Moon Over Miami into the race from the start. They went fast early last time (:45 3/5 and 1:09 2/5), but a moderate pace looks likely in this spot, given the lack of speed entered.

Moon Over Miami grinded out a nice maiden tally over Aqueduct’s main track in December, when he was able to race up close, and it’s easy to envision improvement in his second turf attempt. Out of a Grade 3-winning turf mare, the son of Malibu Moon is from the same immediate female family of Grade 1 turf winner Musical Chimes.

Thursday’s field certainly lacks a standout, with the lukewarm 7-2 morning-line favorite seeking his first win in 14 months, and Moon Over Miami has been pegged at an attractive 6-1 on the morning line.


The Kentucky Derby returns to Churchill Downs on Saturday, Sept. 5.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT