Analyzing a wild edition of the Del Mar Futurity

Despite this staggering finish, none of the late runners were able to gain much ground. After he put away Garth and Fore Left, Nucky resiliently kicked on in the homestretch and widened his advantage from the eighth pole home to prevail by 2 3/4 lengths at odds of 35-1. Wrecking Crew and Defense Wins rallied from a few lengths back to finish second and third, though the more impressive deep closer was the riderless Eight Rings, who stayed focused on his task like a professional racehorse and overcame a deficit of 15 or 20 lengths to cross the wire third.

Nucky deserves credit for surviving the pace duel, but he was 35-1 for a reason. The Peter Miller-trained colt entered the Futurity with only a maiden claiming victory to his credit from four starts, and his slow finish produced an uninspiring 68 Beyer speed figure.

On the bright side Nucky has now won two races in a row, and as a son of Ghostzapper out of a Rock Hard Ten mare, he’s bred to improve with maturity. It’s possible Nucky has turned a corner, and although his task was made easier by the absence of Eight Rings, it’s not like Nucky defeated a poor field. Runner-up Wrecking Crew had previously finished second in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) with an 80 Beyer, while Fore Left—who faded to fifth after the duel with Nucky—had previously finished third in the Best Pal one start after he won Belmont Park’s Tremont Stakes.

One is left to wonder how the Futurity might have unfolded if not for the incident after the start. Would Eight Rings have lived up to expectations with another resounding victory? Would Storm the Court have produced a late rally? Would Nucky have battled on to win regardless?

The results of the Futurity were more inconclusive than anything else. We’ll have to wait for the September 27 American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and the November 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to get a clearer picture of how California’s top 2-year-olds truly stack up against each other.