Analyzing the Super High 5 carryovers at Gulfstream and Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson highlights horses to play in a pair of Saturday Super High 5 carryovers at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park.

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $9,197 Super High 5 carryover (12:00 p.m. ET)

The Saturday opener at Gulfstream Park includes a $9,197 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. The race involved is a $12,500 maiden claimer for three-year-olds racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, and with 11 entries in the mix, there are plenty of possible outcomes to consider.

The horses to beat are likely #8 Classic Film (5-2) and #7 Mekano (3-1). Both are dropping in class out of a series of $16,000 maiden claiming routes over the Gulfstream Tapeta. On Dec. 12, they ran second and third, respectively, with Classic Film getting the better of Mekano by 1 3/4 lengths. But whereas Classic Film struggled in his next start (running fourth in a one-mile and 70-yard heat on Jan. 22), Mekano improved, finishing second in a 1 1/16-mile event on Jan. 1.

Mekano has more tactical speed than Classic Film and may have an opportunity to outkick the favorite down the homestretch of this largely paceless race. Throw in the fact Gilberto Zerpa wins at a 29% rate in maiden claimers, and Mekano looks like a horse to key on top in the Super High 5.

Turfway Park, Race 10: $1,829 Super High 5 carryover (10:46 p.m. ET)

The Saturday finale at Turfway Park is a $5,000 maiden claimer slated to take place over five furlongs on Tapeta. A total of 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) have been entered, so handicappers keen to pursue the $1,829 Super High 5 carryover have a tough challenge ahead of them.

Most of the entrants have already raced without success at Turfway, but a notable exception is #10 Tempesta (3-1). The five-year-old gelding has spent most of his career competing in turf races on tougher circuits; for example, he’s hit the board several times in $40,000 maiden claimers for New York-breds at Belmont Park and Saratoga.

Tempesta recently returned from a layoff to run sixth in a $12,500 maiden claimer over the bullring dirt track at Charles Town. It wasn’t an eye-catching performance, but the conditions surely weren’t ideal for Tempesta, who is bred to thrive on turf. Switching to Tapeta (a surface more like turf than dirt) figures to trigger a rebound from Tempesta, and dropping in class can’t hurt either—trainer James Lawrence wins at a 40% rate with horses descending two or more levels down the class ladder.

Tempesta might not be an odds-on favorite, but the signs suggest she’s worth keying on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!