Autumn Stars Amass At Red Mile; Dayton Stakes On Tap

This week the stars go south and west for stakes money, once again highlighting the Ohio harness scene at Dayton, while launching Grand Circuit events at The Red Mile. Two-year-olds, mostly, roll through Saturday racing after a string of high-end purses. Action flows into our Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch (H2W) list targets horses to use in all types of wagers. Check the H2W for numerous outside contenders that pump up exotics as they finish in crucial spots. BLUEGRASS BLOOMING The Red Mile goes into Grand Circuit mode on Sept. 26 with Bluegrass Series action, starting with frosh-colt trotters. Three fields of green boys go for $105k each. The first field numbers seven, with two maidens and two Marcus Melander youngsters—Back Of The Neck and Expectations. The latter (by Muscle Hill) has already hit the three-digit mark in earnings, and the former (by Ready Cash) has won three of six starts. Between them at the gate is Ake Svanstedt’s Gangster Hanover (by Father Patrick), who has won two of four and will challenge Melander’s duo. Hobbs (by Credit Winner), leaves from the rail having finished on the board six of 10 times. Though only one is a win, Jim Campbell’s colt has broken the $100k earnings mark and will go to post with better chances than odds, getting our support. The second Bluegrass offers a field of eight with three colts by Father Patrick, one which we have been watching closely—Synergy. Per Engblom’s colt has been getting better with every plunge and here, against Melander’s Capricornus and highly regarded Berkery J, could gain a higher status in the division. The remaining Bluegrass field of eight sends probable favorite Ready For Moni to post. With four wins in five starts, Engblom’s trotter (by Ready For Cash) has been among the top five in the division thus far. Melander’s Rome Pays Off (by Muscle Hill) has been scooting along well, too, but for a better price, outsider Amigo Volo (by Father Patrick) should be in the mix and is in a good spot to pump up his bankroll with a winner’s share of the purse. DAYTON DOUBLE The first of two signature races at Dayton on Sept. 27 is the $171k Dayton Trotting Derby. Nine older trotters are on hand, most of them second-tier players in the division. After a great race last week at Hoosier where we backed longshot Mission Accepted (who finished second), the Ron Burke student is back. He proved belonging in a group of top trotters—the Hoosier field was tougher than this—and would be no surprise to our readers, should he bombard this group. Manchego has been hot and Fiftydallarbill always gets action in the Midwest, so they will be supported well. Custom Cantab, even though strapped with the outside post, will attract a strong group of bettors. All of that helps our price on Mission Accepted. The second of the two features is the $151k Dayton Pacing Derby. This eight-horse field presents a few good arguments. For instance, McWicked returns from a bad trip at Hoosier last week but can be forgiven considering the traffic involved during the mile. This Is The Plan, who beat McWicked in that event, is a common threat at this level. Western Fame is still among the top aged pacers, scoring 15 times on the board in 17 starts, giving him the top earnings in this field. Jimmy Freight and Endeavor join the group to guarantee no one steals the mile. As well, some could argue that Courtly Choice could be presented another scenario that allows him to win off of a cover trip and tiring foes. Odds are tough to predict but due to all the arguments, Western Fame could offer a terrific price and may very well blast this group away, able to do so from off the pace or cutting the fractions himself. BLUE FILLIES Sept. 27 offers six Bluegrass frosh-filly events for pacers and trotters. Four of the stakes involve the trotters, each worth $83k, and the pacers go for $139k each in the others. First of the filly trotters’ quartet is a field of eight, featuring unbeaten Senorita Rita with two wins. She is the sole progeny of Chapter Seven in this race, which will heighten her status among bettors (or should). The highest earner is Engblom’s Shishito (by Trixton). The penultimate earner, Violet Stride, is also by Trixton. The best price, and our spot play, may be offered by outside-contender Cover Girl, the lone Muscle Hill product. On the board for three of four starts, Cover Girl will go under the betting radar while her chances remain solid. Seven charge in the next filly trot, which offers the obvious Sister Sledge (by Father Patrick). She has won all of her seven starts for Ron Burke and now faces Hello Tomorrow (by Muscle Hill), the other big money-winner though only having won a single race. What could be decided as a good pass for bettors, we take a shot on Sweet Shirley Mae (by Muscle Hill). She has only raced twice but won them both for Engblom, who we see as prolific at this Grand Circuit meet. Next, there are another eight fillies aboard. Here, we go right for the sole filly by Triumphant Caviar—Kikimora. She may not go unnoticed but Chris Beaver’s student won’t get the majority of support with other brands available. Closing the trotting Bluegrass stream are seven fillies, featuring the streaking Romona Hill (by Muscle Hill) for Tony Alagna. Again, there’s a legitimate challenger—Panem (Father Patrick). The blueblood filly has won the most of the group for Nancy Johansson. Still, we lean into Madame Sherry (by Father Patrick). Jim Campbell’s filly has hit the board three of four times, once a winner, and can only get better. MORE BLUE FILLIES The pair of filly pacing Bluegrass events begins with a tight affair. Three gals are six-digit winners, each vulnerable, as displayed after a few losses. Beyond Ecstacy (by Somebeachsomewhere) may take more money than the rest but Marloe Hanover (by Captaintreacherous) is in a perfect spot for a mild upset. This Carter Pinske-trained gal has hit the board five of six starts and being in the mix at a price makes her the bet. The other Bluegrass pace has a nine-filly field. Linda Toscano’s Baby Your The Best (Captaintreacherous) has a huge class edge in earnings ahead of Gai Waterhouse (by Western Ideal), but the crowd may be more interested in the former for trainer and driver reasons, which are moot. We like Gai Waterhouse, from trainer Dom Cecere. BLUEGRASS BOOGIE A single soph-filly pace Bluegrass and a quartet of frosh-colt chapters are the Grand Circuit highlights at The Red Mile on Sept. 28. The fillies offer a dozen choices in one Bluegrass feature worth $163k. The field is a sterling example of the division’s classy season. Good prices will abound here, but make no mistake about the probable favorite—Tall Drink Hanover. She is getting a late-season surge that handicappers and harness media folk promote strongly. Alagna’s other entry, Treacherous Reign, may be as powerful but does not have the publicity on her side, racing in the shadow of Tall Drink Hanover. Her odds may be tempting. Burke has four going here, led by Sylph Hanover. If she is the best of the Burke brigade, the others have slim chances for investors. Also dangerous are Queen Of The Pride and Beautyonthebeach. Both could go off higher than their chances. Bettors, making her a sound overlay, could undeservingly bury Joe Holloway’s Zero Tolerance. In a field this large and with a celebrity filly like Tall Drink Hanover being bet too heavily, Zero Tolerance, whose second-tier post could become a severe edge, is the bet for us at the time of this posting. That being said, you should watch the developing odds closely and not be fearful of making a wager on some of the juicier prices available. The frosh-colt chapters are worth $80k each. For the sake of space, here is a quick rundown for each split: Race 1 – Catch The Fire can catch the unbeaten Elver Hanover at a decent price. Race 3 – Captain Groovy will have them all on the chase. Race 4 – Cattlewash takes his second chance from H2W list in this pricey event because he may be this good. Race 5 – Roll With Jr continues to improve and be relatively ignored. He is solid here. H2W Legend Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. H2W LIST Batavia 9/27/19, Dream Field R2; Lyons Delight R10; Southwind Onyx R12 Dayton 9/26/19, Winna Winna R4; Star Guitar R4; Infiniti AS R7; Winwood Mac R8; Blacklist Z Tam R9 9/27/19, Up Front For Ida R7 Freehold 9/27/19, +Nippy W Hanover R4; +Common Sense S R5 Hoosier 9/26/19, BC Octane R3; General Simba R4; Phine By Me R7 Meadows 9/28/19, IC Caviar R4; Like Clockwork R11; Cole On The Beach R13; Crusher Q R13 Monticello 9/26/19, Mr Pearl R2; +Sandnista R4; Wink And Nod R7 Northfield 9/27/19, +Jetomatt R2; +Rockin Kasbah R14; +St Lads Maggie Mae R16 Northville 9/27/19, Ballerina Rosa R3; Bo Nanza Chip R4 9/28/19, Sugarcreek Storm R1; Pikachu Hanover R1 Philly 9/26/19, Kredit Karma ae R11; DWs Ny Yank R13 Plainridge 9/27/19, Midnite Craze R4; Box Of Gifts R6 Pocono 9/29/19, Moms Crossroads R1 Red Mile 9/26/19, Becky Kronos R 2; Billie Claire R5 Saratoga 9/26/19, Leap Year Lucky R12 Vernon 9/27/19, A Wish For Wings R9 9/28/19, Quid Pro Quo R11; The Saint R12 Yonkers 9/26/19, Kredit Karma R2; With Out A Doubt R4 9/27/19, Lovineveryminute R4; Tipp City R11