Avie's Flatter can take the spotlight in Breeders' Stakes

The third time might be the charm for #7 Avie’s Flatter in the $400,000 Breeders’ Stakes at Woodbine, the final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown.

Avie’s Flatter performed admirably without a victory in the first two legs of the challenging series. In the 1 1/4-mile Queen’s Plate Stakes over the Woodbine Tapeta track, Avie’s Flatter tracked the pace but couldn’t quite wear down the leader on his way to second place. Then, in the 1 3/16-mile Prince of Wales Stakes on dirt at Fort Erie, Avie’s Flatter took the lead in the homestretch, only to be run down late by #5 Tone Broke.

But Avie’s Flatter’s streak of frustration can end Saturday. In the Breeders’ Stakes, Avie’s Flatter will be switching to turf and stretching out to 1 1/2 miles, two factors that should play in his favor. While Avie’s Flatter has shown potential on Tapeta and dirt, his classiest victory came in the Transylvania Stakes (G3) on grass at Keeneland, where he rallied to defeat eventual Belmont Derby (G1) winner Henley’s Joy by half-length.

The 1 1/2-mile distance should also suit Avie’s Flatter. As a son of Flatter (by 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy), out of a mare by 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Avie’s Flatter’s pedigree is loaded with stamina. If the Breeders’ Stakes turns into a grinding drive to the finish, Avie’s Flatter should be the one to take advantage. His tactical speed also figures to be an asset in a seemingly paceless race.

That’s not to say Avie’s Flatter won’t face a challenge from Tone Broke. After a third-place finish in the Queen’s Plate, which marked his debut on Tapeta, Tone Broke relished the return to dirt for the Prince of Wales Stakes and rallied to upset Avie's Flatter and One Bad Boy. From a class perspective he’s every bit the equal of Avie’s Flatter. But the big difference is he is unproven on grass, and because horses of equal prowess on both dirt and turf are uncommon, Tone Broke’s success on dirt leaves me questioning whether he’ll bring his best form in the Breeders’ Stakes.

Tone Broke’s class should still be sufficient to land him on the board, but beyond the two obvious favorites, you can make a case for just about anyone else to crack the top three. So let’s play a couple of trifectas with Avie’s Flatter on top. Underneath we’ll key Tone Broke with “ALL,” in case the 1 1/2-mile distance tosses up a longshot for second or third.

$2 trifecta: 7 with 5 with ALL ($14) $2 trifecta: 7 with ALL with 5 ($14)

Good luck!