Bellera stands out in Ladies Handicap at Aqueduct

What will be the key factor to determine the outcome of the $100,000 Ladies H. on Sunday, January 19 at Aqueduct?

There are countless angles to consider when handicapping horse races. You can take your pick of numbers and statistics that quantify jockeys, trainers, speed figures, pace figures, pedigrees, and everything in between. When you run out of numbers, there’s the eye test—watching replays and formulating opinions based on visuals rather than hard data.

But betting the Ladies H. doesn’t have to be so complicated. This isn’t your typical one-mile or 1 1/16-mile race for fillies and mares. The Ladies H. is held over a testing 1 1/8 miles, a distance that figures to give a clear advantage to #7 Bellera.

Bellera is bred to relish long distances. Her sire, Bernardini, was a three-time Grade 1 winner at 1 3/16 miles or farther, and he has sired plenty of long-winded runners.  Bellera’s damsire, Unbridled’s Song, has likewise sired an abundance of high-class distance runners, such as Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) victor Arrogate and Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winners Unbridled Elaine, Unrivaled Belle, and Forever Unbridled.

Bellera has been living up to her lineage. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Bellera first rose to prominence over the summer, when she crushed older mares in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Saratoga. She reiterated her quality and long-distance proclivities with a victory in the 1 1/8-mile Comely (G3) on Nov. 29 at Aqueduct.

 

Bellera is already the fastest filly on paper, with a pair of 99 Brisnet Speed ratings, and her Brisnet Late Pace ratings are also strong, with a 107 and a 106 from her two starts at 1 1/8 miles. Considering her pedigree and obvious affinity for running long, Bellera stands out as a clear-cut choice to win the Ladies H., especially since she’ll have Aqueduct’s leading jockey, Jose Lezcano, in the saddle.

For exotic wagers like the trifecta, Bellera’s Pletcher-trained stablemate, #2 Another Broad, looks like the one to emphasize. The runner-up in the 1 1/8-mile Turnback the Alarm H. (G3) on Nov. 2 at Aqueduct, Another Broad was compromised by a speed-favoring track when she finished fifth in the Dec. 7 Go for Wand H. (G3). She can rebound if she encounters a fair track Sunday.

$7.50 Trifecta: 7 with 2 with 1,6 ($15) $7.50 Trifecta: 7 with 1,6 with 2 ($15)

Good luck!