Belmont Park: Stakes plays for the Pumpkin Pie and Chelsey Flower

Picks and plays on a $50 budget for the Sunday stakes races at Belmont Park.

Race 7: Pumpkin Pie S. (3:25 p.m. ET)

Although just six fillies and mares have been entered in this 7-furlong sprint, the field contains a surprising amount of speed, which could set the stage for #4 Honor Way (3-1) to prevail.

Whereas most of her rivals have done their best running over shorter distances, Honor Way boasts a 3-1-2 record from 10 starts at 7 furlongs. She is one of just two horses in the Pumpkin Pie field to have won at this distance, and she is the only runner to have won multiple 7-furlong sprints.

Honor Way also brings a sharp 3-4-1 record from nine starts at Belmont Park, including a runner-up effort in the 6 1/2-furlong Gallant Bloom H. (G2) on Oct. 3. Though Honor Way was no match for runaway winner Frank’s Rockette (a pre-entrant in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint), she showed some determination to secure the runner-up spot, over graded stakes winner Royal Charlotte.

With a career-best 103 Brisnet Speed rating, Honor Way is fast enough to vie for victory under jockey Jose Ortiz.

I’ll bet her to win and single her to kick off a double.

$20 to win on #4 Honor Way
$10 double: 4 with 10

Race 8: Chelsey Flower S. (3:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Caldee (5-2) is bound to start as the favorite for trainer Brad Cox. After she wired her debut at Saratoga by 6 3/4 lengths, the speedy daughter of More Than Ready finished second in the Miss Grillo (G2) at Belmont, where she was beaten only by undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) contender Plum Ali.

But in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Caldee isn’t the fastest filly in the Chelsey Flower field. That honor belongs to #10 Lovestruck (7-2), a Godolphin homebred trained by Bill Mott. In her debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Saratoga, Lovestruck settled off the pace, behind modest fractions, then accelerated down the lane to win by a length.

Lovestruck earned a 105 Brisnet Late Pace rating, and I’m optimistic she’ll show improvement Sunday. Mott trainees aren’t usually cranked to fire peak efforts on debut, so Lovestruck’s eye-catching performance might be a sign of big things to come.

$20 to win on #10 Lovestruck

Good luck!