Belmont Park: Which 2-year-old should you bet in the Champagne?

At first glance, Saturday’s $250,000 Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park appears to be a straightforward race to handicap.

The 1-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race has attracted just six starters, and on paper, two tower over the field.

#4 Jackie’s Warrior (3-5) is undefeated in three starts for trainer Steve Asmussen. He dominated the Saratoga Special (G2) and Hopeful (G1) in gate-to-wire fashion. #5 Reinvestment Risk (8-5) won his debut impressively at Saratoga and rallied to finish second in the Hopeful.

It might seem as though betting Jackie’s Warrior over Reinvestment Risk in a cold exacta is the way to go. But this logical approach is lacking in value.

Jackie’s Warrior deserves to be favored off his fine summer form. Just look at his effort in the Hopeful, where he carved out fast fractions of :22.56, :44.83, and 1:08.33, then eased up late to win in the stakes-record time of 1:21.29.

However, Jackie’s Warrior is going to be bet like he can’t lose in the Champagne. His 3-5 number on the morning line means a 62.5% chance of victory, and it’s possible he could dip even lower. Those are tough odds to accept on any lightly raced 2-year-old, particularly if you watch the replay of the Hopeful and focus your attention on Reinvestment Risk.

The Chad Brown trainee was no match for the early speed of Jackie’s Warrior and lost ground steadily as the race unfolded. Past the eighth pole, he trailed by five lengths and seemed destined to finish even farther behind. But Reinvestment Risk never gave up, and when jockey Joel Rosario eased Jackie’s Warrior in the final yards, Reinvestment Risk eagerly reclaimed lost ground to finish just 2 1/4 lengths behind.

I’m not convinced Jackie’s Warrior’s diminishing margin of victory was entirely the result of being eased. I think Reinvestment Risk battled back late, and I’m optimistic the stretch out over a mile can reverse the outcome in the Champagne.

Juveniles mature quickly this time of year, and while Jackie’s Warrior was the star of the summer, autumn might be Reinvestment Risk’s time to shine.

In an effort to boost the prospective payoff, let’s go against the flow and bet Reinvestment Risk on top of Jackie’s Warrior in a hefty exacta.

$30 exacta: 5 with 4

Good luck!