Best bet to play in the Jerome Stakes

Following a brief hiatus, the Road to the Kentucky Derby will resume on New Year’s Day with the running of the $200,000 Jerome S. at Aqueduct.

The 1-mile race dates back to 1866, but the 2021 renewal has come up a bit light with just five runners in the mix. Simple win bets and exacta wagers are unlikely to yield enticing payoffs, so the best bet to play might be the trifecta, which typically yields a much better return on investment.

We’ll structure our trifecta tickets around three horses in particular:

Top pick

#4 Eagle Orb (9-5) has shown significant improvement since adding blinkers for his fourth start. A pacesetting effort in the 1-mile Sleepy Hollow S. saw Eagle Orb finish second behind Brooklyn Strong, who came right back to win the Remsen (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Eagle Orb was even sharper in the 6-furlong Notebook S. last time out, rallying to score by 2 3/4 lengths with a field-best 91 Brisnet Speed rating. Eagle Orb is quickly progressing in the right direction and can spring a mild upset in the Jerome.

Vulnerable favorite

Many bettors will be keen to support #2 Swill (7-5), who exits an even fourth-place effort against tougher company in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. But trainer Brad Cox doesn’t typically run his best horses in listed stakes races at Aqueduct, and Swill’s pedigree is geared more toward success in sprints than routes. The class and distance of the Jerome might be more than Swill is up to handling, though a top-three finish is well within reach.

Live longshot

#1 Capo Kane (12-1) is shipping in from Parx, but the longest shot on the morning line was certainly an impressive winner last time out, wiring a 1-mile and 70-yard maiden race by 4 1/2 lengths. A son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense out of a mare by Derby runner-up Hard Spun, Capo Kane is bred to improve with distance and maturity. A small step forward can place him in the hunt for a spot on the board.

Let’s bet Eagle Orb on top in the trifecta. Underneath, we’ll key Swill while adding Capo Kane and recent grass maiden winner #5 Original (7-2) for the final slot. We’ll take a stand against two-time sprint stakes winner #3 Hold the Salsa (4-1), who finished well behind Eagle Orb in the Sleepy Hollow S.

$7.50 trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1,5 ($15)
$7.50 trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 2 ($15)
Total: $30

Good luck!