Best longshot to bet in the 2020 Kentucky Derby

By now you’ve probably read a dozen or more Kentucky Derby handicapping previews expounding on the virtues of deserving favorite #17 Tiz the Law (3-5).

You’ve probably read just as many stories highlighting second choice #16 Honor A. P. (5-1) as a logical alternative.

But what if you don’t want to play the favorites? What if you’re keen to bet a longshot, even if it’s only in exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta?

Someone has to finish third or fourth, and if chaos unfolds at Churchill Downs, a longshot winner isn’t out of the question. Remember 2019, when 64-1 longshot Country House got upgraded to victory via the disqualification of 9-2 Maximum Security?

Generally speaking, unheralded deep closers are the most likely to hit the board at huge prices in the Kentucky Derby. Just think of Instilled Regard (fourth at 85-1 in 2018), Lookin At Lee (second at 33-1 in 2017), Commanding Curve (second at 37-1 in 2014), Golden Soul (second at 34-1 in 2013), Went the Day Well (fourth at 30-1 in 2012), and Make Music for Me (fourth at 30-1 in 2010).

None raced closer than 15th place in the early going, but all came charging late to blow up a bevy of exotic tickets.

If you’re keen to play a longshot in the 2020 Kentucky Derby, history suggests you should favor deep closers. There are plenty to choose from, with #3 Enforceable (30-1) one of the most intriguing.

A full brother to 2016 Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Mohaymen, Enforceable is a pure late runner with a deceptively strong stretch kick.

Winner of the Lecomte (G3) during the winter at Fair Grounds, Enforceable has been very effective racing 1 1/8 miles and broke his maiden over the distance, before placing second in a division of the Risen Star (G2) and fourth in the Blue Grass (G2).

In every instance, Enforceable managed to sprint the final three furlongs in less than :38 seconds, the mark of a capable Kentucky Derby contender. I was particularly impressed with Enforceable’s effort in the Blue Grass, considering he was returning from a 3 1/2-month layoff and missed third place by just a neck.

Stretching out over 1 1/4 miles shouldn’t be an issue for this stoutly-bred Mark Casse trainee, and drawing post 3 offers the potential for a ground-saving trip.

He might not win, but Enforceable can certainly rally to finish on the board at 30-1, stamping the son of Tapit as a horse to include in all exotic wagers.

Good luck!

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