BetAmerica’s horse racing pick of the day: Sept. 21, Presque Isle

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Monday, Sept. 21

Presque Isle Downs, Race 5: Maiden special weight (6 furlongs, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Pepper (5-2 on the morning line) is favored to win Monday’s maiden sprint for fillies and mares, but she has finished second four times at this track and class level and looks like a money-burning type, more inclined to hit the board than prevail.

Rather than rely heavily on Pepper, I’m tempted to take a shot with #1 Rain Dance (9-2). While Rain Dance weakened to finished fifth over this track, class level, and distance Sept. 1 — 5 1/4 lengths behind Pepper — the daughter of The Factor was returning from a three-month layoff and making her first start for trainer Matthew Kintz.

Kintz strikes at a 25% rate with horses running for the second time under his care, so Rain Dance should be sharper Monday.

She owns the highest Brisnet Speed rating in the field and could shake loose on an uncontested lead, so let’s box Rain Dance in the exacta with Pepper.

$10 exacta box: 1,2 ($20)

Good luck!