Betting a horse for the course in the Jaipur Invitational

When handicappers tackle the tricky multi-race wagers on Belmont Stakes Day at Belmont Park, you can bet many of them will focus in on #8 World of Trouble as a possible single in the $400,000 Jaipur Invitational (G1).

The 4-year-old son of Kantharos looms as an obvious choice on paper. He’s won six of his last seven starts for trainer Jason Servis, with his lone defeat coming by a neck in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), where he fired off a massive 118 Beyer speed figure. This year World of Trouble is undefeated in three starts, with wins in the Carter Handicap (G1) on dirt and the Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (G2) on grass the main highlights.

World of Trouble has exceptional frontrunning speed and has posted six straight triple-digit Beyers, which is why he’s favored at even money on the morning line. But I’m not convinced World of Trouble will win the Jaipur.

World of Trouble has been racing pretty much non-stop since January of 2018, and while he’s maintained his form beautifully, you have to wonder if his busy campaign and sensational performances will catch up to him at some point.

But there’s a bigger reason why World of Trouble could be vulnerable. In the Jaipur he’ll be facing #6 Disco Partner, a formidable rival with a clear affinity for the Belmont turf course.

Disco Partner is a veteran, with 11 wins from 29 starts, but he is 9-for-14 over the turf courses at Belmont and just 2-for-15 at all other tracks. Whenever Disco Partner shows up at Belmont, he elevates his game to a different level. After finishing second in the 2016 Jaipur, Disco Partner proceeded to win the race in 2017 (when he clocked six furlongs in 1:05.67, a North American record) and again in 2018.

Disco Partner’s affinity for Belmont has become more pronounced in recent years. He’s won six of his last seven starts at Belmont, but hasn’t won at any other racetrack since August of 2016. For this reason, I’m not too concerned about Disco Partner’s ninth-place finish in the April 6 Shakertown Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, his 2019 debut. He was beaten just 4 1/2 lengths while running a distance shorter than his best, and finishing third by 6 1/4 lengths in the 2018 Shakertown didn’t stop Disco Partner from shipping back to Belmont and cruising to victory in the Jaipur.

For the purpose of multi-race wagers, I encourage you to consider Disco Partner as a value play alternative to World of Trouble. I also suggest playing him on top of the trifecta, while using World of Trouble, #3 Dirty and #7 Belvoir Bay underneath:

$7.50 trifecta: 6 with 8 with 3,7 ($15) $5 trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 8 ($10) $2.50 trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 3,7 ($5)

Good luck!