Betting an 8-1 shot in the Presque Isle Downs Masters

Most handicapping logic points to #10 Hotshot Anna as the most likely winner of Monday’s $400,000 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes (G2) at Presque Isle Downs.

What’s not to like? The consistent Hotshot Anna already has a couple of graded stakes wins under her belt, and more importantly she is 3-for-3 over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs. She had no difficulty dispatching 10 rivals in this race last year, when she powered clear to win by 4 1/4 lengths. She prepped for a defense of her title with a second consecutive win in the Satin and Lace Stakes over the track August 19.

But if we’re being picky, Hotshot Anna hasn’t been as dominant this season as she was last year. In 2018 she looked like a beast, and dominated the Chicago Handicap (G3) at Arlington by 5 3/4 lengths before her back-to-back blowout wins at Presque Isle. Her streak of success yielded big speed figures—Beyers of 99, 94, and 99, plus Brisnet speed figures of 101, 94,and 96.

In contrast, Hotshot Anna was beaten in the 2019 Chicago Handicap, where she finished second after leading into the stretch. Perhaps she was rusty for her first run of the season, but after a rebounding turf win in an allowance at Arlington, she had to work to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths in the Satin and Lace and posted modest speed figures of 86 (Beyer) and 92 (Brisnet).

I was more impressed by the Satin and Lace runner-up #2 Spring in the Wind. Whereas Hotshot Anna enjoyed a perfect trip tracking solid but unremarkable fractions, Spring in the Wind was compromised by a slow start that left her last early on. Spring in the Wind then had to thread her way through the field around the far turn, but once she got clear, she rallied resiliently and was gaining ground on Hotshot Anna through the stretch.

If you toss out Spring in the Wind’s poor showings on dirt, her race record looks encouraging. She also won three straight races over the Woodbine Tapeta track in 2018. There is plenty of speed entered in the Presque Isle Downs Masters, so Spring in the Wind should get a faster pace to work with this time around. Maybe she isn’t the most likely winner, but if Hotshot Anna winds up chasing fast fractions, I think Spring in the Wind can rally to turn the tables at 8-1.

Let’s box these two Tapeta specialist in the exacta and bet Spring in the Wind to win.

$10 to win on #2 Spring in the Wind $10 exacta: 2 with 10 $5 exacta: 10 with 2

Good luck!