Blue Grass BRIS Speed Rating Report

Fourteen three-year-olds will square off in the $1 million Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland and all need points, with none ranking among the top 20 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.  One of seven major prep races for the 145^th Kentucky Derby on May 4, most of the Blue Grass runners have plenty of room for improvement from a BRIS Speed rating perspective. Before we analyze the numbers for this year’s Blue Grass field, let’s take review the previous 10 winners. Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for Florida Derby winners entering the race:

Horse		BRIS Speed
Good Magic		98
		105
Irap		93
		86
Brody’s Cause		83
		95
Carpe Diem		96
		93
Dance With Fate		89
		88
Java War		97
		87
Dullahan		98
		96
Brilliant Speed		91
		92
Stately Victor		85
		81
General Quarters		88
		100

Analysis: Only two registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating in the last two starts, with Good Magic (105 two back) snapping an eight-year drought. Four brought declining BRIS Speed ratings into the race, with General Quarters (12-point) representing the biggest decrease followed by Good Magic (7-point). Four winners – Dance with Fate (89), General Quarters (88), Stately Victor (85) and Brody’s Cause (83) -- failed to earn at least a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the last start. Dance with Fate and Stately Victor registered a pair of BRIS Speed ratings in the 80s. Four winners -- Good Magic (98), Dullahan (98), Java War (97) and Carpe Diem (96) – earned a BRIS Speed rating of 95+ in the last start. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post order):

Horse		BRIS Speed
Somelikeithotbrown		91
		88
Vekoma		92
		101
Signalman		87
		95
Market King		88
		85
Chess Chief		86
		79
Dream Maker		85
		91
Admire		89
		95
Win Win Win		92
		101
Sir Winston		90
		96
Lucky Lee		87
		100
So Alive		86
		89
Parsimony		81
		87
Moonster		86
		80
Aquadini		93
		84

Analysis: Aquadini tops the field with a 93 last-out BRIS Speed rating. Aquadini, Vekoma (92), Win Win Win (92), Somelikeithotbrown (91) and Sir Winston (90) are the only contestants to post at least a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the last start. Ten contestants bring declining BRIS Speed ratings into the Blue Grass. Vekoma (101), Win Win Win (101) and Lucky Lee (100) are the only runners to ever earn a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating. PHOTO: Vekoma wins the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct under jockey Manny Franco on November 4, 2018 © Adam Coglianese Photography/NYRA