With the recent confirmation that reigning champion Monomoy Girl will miss the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), the November 2 showdown at Santa Anita currently looms as a two-horse battle.
In terms of speed figures and accomplishments, Midnight Bisou and Elate have pulled well clear of their challengers, but little separates these two standouts, and their battle in the Distaff could go either way. A bevy of 3-year-olds will look to step up this fall and challenge their older rivals, though it remains to be seen if any have the speed and class to match strides with Midnight Bisou and Elate.
The next two weeks should help clarify the picture. The September 21 Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx Racing, the September 28 Beldame Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park and the September 29 Zenyatta Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita are expected to showcase all the top contenders.
Here’s how I rank the major players.
Midnight Bisou
You can argue Midnight Bisou has already wrapped up the Eclipse Award for champion older dirt mare. She is 6-for-6 this season, with three grade 1 wins to her credit, and she has defeated Elate in all three of their meetings. Her hard-fought, late-running nose triumph over Elate in Saratoga’s Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) was especially significant, because it marked Midnight Bisou’s first victory at 1 1/8 miles, the distance of the Distaff. Midnight Bisou has turned into a winning machine and has earned her status as the division leader.
Elate
Although Elate has yet to find the formula to defeat Midnight Bisou, she came mighty close in the Personal Ensign, where she led into the stretch and lost by a nose. While a path to championship honors has been made difficult by Midnight Bisou, Elate remains a formidable opponent in any given race. You can argue she moved too soon in the Personal Ensign, and drifting down toward a dead rail in the homestretch might have been the difference between victory and defeat. A rematch could be in the offing in the Beldame.
Guarana
The undefeated Guarana is lightly raced, but already counts victories in the Acorn Stakes (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) to her credit. I was left a little cold by her victory in the Oaks. She received an easy trip on the front end and ducked out unexpectedly in the homestretch, but she is arguably the leader of the 3-year-old filly division and can cement her supremacy in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) on Saturday. A more professional effort under more challenging circumstances would leave me feeling better about her Breeders’ Cup chances.
Dunbar Road
Guarana’s stablemate has likewise compiled a strong record during the summer. She nabbed the Mother Goose Stakes (G2) and Alabama Stakes (G1) and has demonstrated the ability to handle long distances and varying track conditions. We should soon get a line on how Dunbar Road stacks up against older mares. She’s scheduled to skip the Cotillion, so the Beldame against Midnight Bisou and Elate could be next on her agenda.
Serengeti Empress
The Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner was no match for Guarana in the Acorn, but she also set a blazing pace (:21.89, :43.99 and 1:08.03) and finished well clear of the rest. She cut back to seven furlongs for the Test Stakes (G1) and went down by just a half-length against talented sprinter Covfefe, so it’s not like Serengeti Empress has run poorly this summer. She might even thrive while stretching her speed back around two turns in the Cotillion.
