Brown fillies the keys in Tampa Bay Derby all-stakes Pick 5

The all-stakes Pick 5 on the Tampa Bay Derby card is a little tricky at first glance. While it could certainly be dominated by short-priced winners, there are potential scenarios in which mild upsets by mid-priced shots could occur. Here's how we're approaching it.

Race 7 -- $75,000 Columbia -- #7 GIDU (2-1) is sure to be a single on a lot of tickets as the son of Frankel clearly looks the fastest on paper and the Pletcher barn is winning at well over 50% this meet. On the other hand, there is other speed in here that could potentially soften the colt up in the latter stages. #2 CAPTIVATING MOON (5-1), a half to Grade 1 winner Vacare, overcame a rough start and a slow pace to beat allowance company over this course to stay unbeaten on turf last time. Also perfect on the grass is #3 VERBOTEN (6-1), who might also benefit from a quick tempo.

Race 8 -- $100,000 Challenger -- Brooklyn (G2) winner #7 WAR STORY (8-5) is much better than his Pegasus World Cup (G1) try suggests. Beat several good ones to the wire in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) as a 56-1 shot. #6 YOU'RE TO BLAME (7-2), a solid second to West Coast in the $150,000 Easy Goer at Belmont last summer, has improved since adding blinkers. Also has the Pletcher factor going for him. #3 RAFTING (4-1) enters off two straight local wins and was good enough to place behind Destin in the Sam F. Davis (G3) two years ago prior to a lengthy spell.

Race 9 -- Hillsborough (G2) -- My thought all week was that #2 OFF LIMITS (3-1) was single material, but zero-for-two mark at nine furlongs gives me slight cause for pause. Not going to sleep on the other Chad Brown, #3 FOURSTAR CROOK (6-1), who's been working in company with her stablemate all winter, is proven at the distance and in open company.

Race 10 -- Florida Oaks (G3) -- Brown has the fillies to beat here with French imports #2 ALTEA (7-2) and #12 SALSA BELLA (4-1).

Race 11 -- Tampa Bay Derby (G2) -- #8 WORLD OF TROUBLE (5-1) will be out there winging and might forget to stop. #5 FLAMEAWAY (3-1) won't be overlooked this time after upsetting the Sam F. Davis in wire-to-wire fashion. He's not a need-the-lead type, though, and could sit a great trip behind World of Trouble. #3 VINO ROSSO (4-1) got interested very late in the Davis without threatening the top two. The addition of blinkers might help.

Here's the 50-cent ticket:

2,3,7 with 3,6,7 with 2,3 with 2,12 with 3,5,8 = $54.

Good luck!

(Equi-Photo)