California shipper might spring mild upset in Raven Run Stakes

Horses based in California enjoyed plenty of success on opening weekend at Keeneland. On a highly memorable Saturday, Stubbins won the Woodford Stakes (G2), Spiced Perfection nabbed the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) and Bowies Hero claimed the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

I’ll wager on the Californians to extend their success in Saturday's $250,000 Raven Run Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. This seven-furlong dash for sophomore fillies has attracted 11 starters, and only one has shipped in from the West Coast. But that filly is the undefeated #8 First Star, a rising talent with a chance to spring a mild upset.

Trained by Ron Ellis, First Star showed plenty of potential in two starts at Del Mar this summer. In her debut at 6 1/2 furlongs July 20, she was involved in the early pace, dropped back around the far turn and then re-rallied gamely in the stretch to win with a 92 Beyer.

First Star was 27-1 in the wagering, but she proved her victory was no fluke when she stretched out to a mile August 23. Reserved off the pace while she raced wide every step of the way, First Star produced a strong rally down the lane to win going away with an 88 Beyer.

In terms of Beyer speed figures, First Star fits well against her rivals in the Raven Run. Seven furlongs should be right in the sweet spot of her ideal distance range, and she’ll retain the services of regular rider Drayden Van Dyke, who has compiled a solid 5-for-23 (22%) record at Keeneland since 2016.

First Star’s stiffest challenges could come from the barn of leading trainer Chad Brown. #1 Royal Charlotte is has five wins from six starts, with late-running victories in the Prioress Stakes (G2) and Victory Ride Stakes (G3) to her credit, while #3 Indian Pride was an eye-catching debut winner at Saratoga on August 28, when she scored by eight lengths as the 3-5 favorite.

But even though First Star’s Beyer speed figures are comparable to those posted by Royal Charlotte and Indian Pride, the latter two fillies will be shorter prices in the wagering, thanks in large part to Brown’s reputation. If First Star gets lost in the betting (she is 6-1 on the morning line), there might be an opportunity to make a nice score.

Assuming First Star’s odds hold up, a win bet will definitely be in order. We’ll also play her on top of a trifecta.

$15 to win on #8 First Star $0.50 trifecta: 8 with 1,2,3,6,9,11 with 1,2,3,6,9,11 ($15)

Good luck!