Can a deep closer win the Kentucky Derby?

Though 145 editions of the Kentucky Derby, pretty much every possible winning trip has already happened.

There have been frontrunners, stalkers, mid-pack closers, and the most exciting of them all — the deep closer.

But it’s been a while for the latter.

Sure, Country House technically "won" the Derby with a closing trip from ninth last year, but ninth is in the middle of a standard, 20-horse field on the first Saturday in May. Through six furlongs, Country House was only 4 1/4 lengths behind the frontrunning Maximum Security, who crossed the wire first but was infamously disqualified for interference.

So who was the last horse to come from the clouds to win the Kentucky Derby?

That would be Orb, in 2013, who was 16th through the first half-mile, 18 3/4 lengths behind early leader Palace Malice.

But Orb was no shocker, like so many closers in the Derby. He was the 5-1 favorite, off back-to-back wins in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1).

He also was the benefactor of a suicidal pace. Palace Malice ran the first half-mile in :45.33 over a sloppy Churchill Downs main track, and any horse near the lead early completely fell apart late. The top five finishers were in 16th, 15th, 17th, 12th, and 18th after the first quarter.

Orb got the main ingredient needed for a closer — a speedy setup in front of him. But he also overcame a significant impediment — ground loss.

To avoid traffic, jockey Joel Rosario had to swing Orb at least six wide to make his move, which worked out for the colt, but not so well for Rosario’s 2019 mount, Game Winner.

Game Winner was around eight to nine wide when he made his move in the second turn, but because he had to travel so much farther, he flattened out in the lane. It still amazes me he grinded home well enough to finish fifth, considering how much ground he lost in the final turn. With an easier trip, he would have been right there with the leaders.

But while the wide trip hurts in one way, it prevents another hurdle for deep closers — traffic trouble.

The last deep closer to win before Orb was Mine that Bird in 2009, and he saved every inch of ground possible. But his trip was even more improbable than his 50-1 odds, and it nearly didn’t happen. If Join in the Dance made it just a few inches tighter as Mine that Bird tried to scoot through on the inside in the stretch, there’s a fair chance the Derby winner would have gone into and possible over the rail.

The fact that Mine that Bird came from so far back and was unimpeded by the 18 rivals ahead of him was so shocking that NBC race caller Tom Durkin stumbled to identify who was surging away late.

That is what makes a closing trip so difficult in the Derby and why tactical speed is such a weapon to avoid both ground loss and traffic. Enough speed to place a horse in a positive position essentially takes luck — which is part of the deep-closer game plan, like it or not — out of the equation. But the horse also has to be good enough, and the best horses in recent history often put themselves in good spots because they're, well, faster than the other horses. Talented horses have a tendency to make good trips for themselves.

That’s not to say closers don’t provide wagering value on a nearly yearly basis in the Derby.

At 85-1, Instilled Regard came from way out of it to round out the superfecta in 2018, Lookin At Lee beat all but Always Dreaming in 2017 at 33-1 with a closing kick from 16th, Exaggerator stormed home from 17 3/4 lengths back to finish as the runner-up in 2016, and commanding Curve surged home from 18th to finish second in 2015.

So, can a deep closer win the Kentucky Derby in 2020?

Yes.

Will a deep closer win the Kentucky Derby in 2020?

I wouldn’t bet on it.