Churchill Downs: How to bet the Mint Julep Stakes

Trainer Brad Cox is off to a hot start at the Churchill Downs spring meet. With a half-dozen victories through Wednesday, Cox leads all trainers by wins and has a 25% strike rate.

Cox could add a graded stakes win to his haul, when he saddles #1 Juliet Foxtrot and #2 Beau Recall in Saturday’s $100,000 Mint Julep (G3). The 1 1/16-mile turf race has drawn a full field of 14 fillies and mares, but the two Cox trainees stand out as the runners to beat.

Juliet Foxtrot could be the biggest threat, with hot jockey Florent Geroux in the saddle. A speedy daughter of Dansili, the Juddmonte Farms homebred was a consistent high-level performer in 2019. She cracked the trifecta in all six of her runs and won three times. A gate-to-wire winner of the 1 3/16-mile Modesty H. (G3) at Arlington, Juliet Foxtrot also claimed an allowance race at Churchill and placed in the First Lady (G1) and Matriarch (G1) to round out her productive campaign.

Only four horses managed to finish ahead of Juliet Foxtrot in 2019 — Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Uni, Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up Got Stormy, Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) runner-up Vasilika, and two-time graded stakes winner Daddy Is a Legend. Juliet Foxtrot will face easier competition in the Mint Julep, and the tactical speed she displayed in the Modesty could be an asset, since the Mint Julep field doesn’t have much pace on paper.

Beau Recall also brings solid credentials. The winner of the 2019 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile (G2), the late-charging mare never missed the exacta in seven runs last year. She won four stakes and finished second in the Just a Game (G1) and Rodeo Drive (G1). She’ll be at the mercy of the pace Saturday, but 1 1/16 miles is arguably her best distance, and she figures to save some ground out of post 2.

Both Juliet Foxtrot and Beau Recall will make their 2020 debuts, but this is a small concern. Cox wins at a 21% rate off layoffs and brought Owendale back from a similar break to win the Blame S. at Churchill last week.

Both mares rate a strong chance to finish in the money, and since the rest of the Mint Julep runners appear evenly matched, let’s key Juliet Foxtrot and Beau Recall in the trifecta while using “ALL” for the remaining slot.

$1 trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL ($24)
50-cent Trifecta: 1,2 with ALL with 1,2 ($12)
Total: $36

Good luck!