Churchill Downs: Picks and plays for the Single 6 mandatory payout

Newspaperofrecord winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) - Coady Photography

With a carryover over $143,355 set for mandatory dispersal on Kentucky Derby day, you can bet the Single 6 will be a popular wager on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

The jackpot-style Pick 6 features a 20-cent minimum perfect for playing large tickets on small budgets. The Saturday sequence is comprised exclusively of competitive graded stakes races, culminating with the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Let’s tackle the sequence on a ~$30 budget:

Race 9: Pat Day Mile (G2)

A difficult race to decipher with a bevy of contenders. Road to the Kentucky Derby veterans #1 Cezanne, #6 Tap It to Win, and #9 Rushie all warrant respect, along with H. Allen Jerkens (G1) winner #2 Echo Town. But #4 Vertical Threat is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts on dirt, and #5 Digital should find the 1-mile distance of the Pat Day to be right up his alley. The kickoff leg of the Pick 6 might be the toughest to survive, so we’ll spread deep with six horses.

Race 10: Iroquois (G3)

The first qualifying race for the 2021 Kentucky Derby has drawn a deep and competitive field. #10 Therideofalifetime is the fastest horse on paper after finishing second in the Saratoga Special (G2), but the stretch-running debut winners #1 Drop Anchor and #2 Sittin On Go can also be in the mix for high-profile Kentucky trainers Kenny McPeek and Dale Romans.

Race 11: Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile (G2)

The speedy #4 Newspaperofrecord dominated the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Churchill Downs and recently scored a blowout win in Just a Game (G1) at Belmont Park. A flat mile is her ideal distance, so Newspaperofrecord is a logical single for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown.

Race 12: Derby City Distaff (G1)

#1 Mia Mischief won this race last year and is 5-for-9 at Churchill Downs, but drawing the rail could lead to a tricky trip. If the blazingly fast Ballerina (G1) winner #8 Serengeti Empress forces the pace—and there’s no reason to think she won’t—then the late-running Churchill Downs graded stakes winners #4 Bell’s the One and #6 Sally’s Curlin can get involved at double-digit odds. Multiple Grade 1 winner #10 Ce Ce can also factor while cutting back in distance.

Race 13: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1)

#1 Factor This has won four straight stakes and has the tactical speed to be prominent from the outset, but he’s far from the only front-runner in the field. If the early pace is contested, #4 Digital Age—winner of the 2019 American Turf (G2) over this course—can be a late-running threat for Chad Brown.

Race 14: Kentucky Derby (G1)

We’ll end the sequence with a single. #17 Tiz the Law has emerged as the heaviest Kentucky Derby favorite in decades after rattling off runaway wins in the Florida Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), and Travers (G1). He figures to sit a clean trip stalking the pace, and if he brings his A-game, the rest are running for second place.