Churchill Downs: Price plays for the Pat Day Mile, Iroquois, and Turf Classic

An action-packed afternoon of racing awaits on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby (G1) is the obvious highlight, but six other graded stakes are also on the agenda.

Three events — the $500,000 Pat Day Mile (G2), the $200,000 Iroquois (G3), and the $1,000,000 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) — appear particularly competitive, with the potential to produce longshot winners.

Let’s play all three races on a $75 budget:

Race 9: Pat Day Mile (G2, 3:35 p.m. ET)

Road to the Kentucky Derby veterans #1 Cezanne (3-1) and #9 Rushie (4-1) will receive plenty of support in this one-turn mile. Grade 1-caliber sprinters #2 Echo Town (7-2), #6 Tap It to Win (4-1), and #7 No Parole (6-1) also warrant respect.

But I’m keen to take a shot with a couple of price plays. #4 Vertical Threat (8-1) is 2-for-2 sprinting on dirt and posted a solid 97 Brisnet Speed rating when cruising to victory in the July 25 Smiling Tiger S.

He was entered to run against older horses in Del Mar’s Pat O’Brien (G2) last week but scratched to target this race instead. Though he’s got speed, Vertical Threat is also tractable and figures to sit behind the leaders before pouncing in the stretch.

Meanwhile, #5 Digital (12-1) has tried a variety of distances and surfaces this year with so-so results. Two-turn events stretch his stamina, but pure sprints are too short. A one-turn mile should be ideal for this late-running son of Into Mischief, who should receive plenty of pace to chase.

$12 to win on #4 Vertical Threat
$8 to win on #5 Digital
$1 exacta: 4,5 with 1,2,4,5,6,9 ($10)
Total: $30

Race 10: Iroquois (G3, 4:07 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t win very often with first-time starters, so when his runners win on debut, it’s wise to pay attention. Debut winners for McPeek over the last couple of years have included future stakes winners Swiss Skydiver, Restless Rider, and Crazy Beautiful.

#1 Drop Anchor (15-1) made a great impression for McPeek in his initial bow at Ellis Park last month. Sprinting 6 furlongs, the gray colt settled about half a dozen lengths off the pace, then swallowed his rivals with a sweeping outside bid to win going away.

Drop Anchor is bred to stretch out, so the 1-mile distance of the Iroquois should be ideal. Let’s bet this longshot to win and key him in the exacta with #2 Sittin On Go (15-1) and #10 Therideofalifetime (7-5).

$10 to win on #1 Drop Anchor
$1 exacta box: 1,2 ($2)
$2 exacta: 1 with 10
$6 exacta: 10 with 1
Total: $20

Race 13: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1, 5:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Factor This (3-1) has won four straight races to loom as a deserving favorite in this 1 1/8-mile turf test, but the speedy front-runner figures to face pace pressure from #9 Somelikeithotbrown (8-1) and #10 Spectacular Gem (10-1).

As a result, #4 Digital Age (6-1) can spring a mild upset. The Chad Brown-trained 4-year-old won the American Turf (G2) over this course last year and recently rallied to victory in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Saratoga. Digital Age should be poised for a peak effort in his third start off an extended layoff. Barring a surprise, he’ll encounter plenty of pace to set up his late charge.

$25 to win on #4 Digital Age

Good luck!

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