Churchill Downs spot plays for Saturday, Sept. 19

While there aren’t any stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs, the 10-race card features a pair of competitive maiden special weight events.

Older fillies and mares will square off over 1 1/16 miles in Race 2, while juvenile fillies will negotiate a mile in Race 8. Let’s bet $25 on each race and see if we can produce some profitable plays.

Race 2: Maiden special weight (1:14 p.m. ET)

#4 Glamour Girl (5-2) brings the best Brisnet Speed ratings, but the daughter of Tonalist is winless in nine starts, with a half-dozen top-three finishes under her belt, so she seems more likely to hit the board than win.

#3 Villanelle (2-1) is an appealing alternative. While she could only finish fourth in her debut sprinting 6 furlongs at Ellis Park, Villanelle is bred to thrive on the stretch out in distance, being a daughter of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, out of the multiple graded stakes-winning router Gamay Noir.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a lofty 26% with second-time starters, and hot jockey Florent Geroux will climb aboard, so let’s bet Villanelle to win and play her over Glamour Girl in a straight exacta.

$20 to win on #3 Villanelle
$5 exacta: 3 with 4
Total: $25

Race 8: Maiden special weight (4:21 p.m. ET)

#3 Rockpaperscissors (3-1) ran evenly to finish fifth in her debut sprinting 5 furlongs at Ellis Park, but there are reasons to believe this 2-year-old filly will show improvement at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is an infrequent winner with first-time starters, but he strikes at a 21% with horses racing for the second time. Brisset also wins at a 21% rate with horses running long for the first time, so the added distance of Saturday’s race should benefit Rockpaperscissors.

After he breezed a bullet half-mile in :46 4/5 Sept. 12 at Keeneland, it seems safe to assume Rockpaperscissors will flash more speed at Churchill Downs, especially with blinkers on for the first time.

Let’s bet Rockpaperscissors to win and play her in the exacta, over #4 Patty H (2-1) and #7 Rookery (3-1).

$15 to win on #3 Rockpaperscissors
$5 exacta: 3 with 4,7 ($10)
Total: $25

Good luck!