Churchill Downs: Tackling the Louisville Stakes Pick 3

With 115 horses entered across 11 races, the Saturday card at Churchill Downs is shaping up to be an ultra-competitive afternoon with plenty of potential for cashing big payoffs.

The final Pick 3, ending with $100,000 Louisville (G3), looks especially lucrative with a dozen or more runners entered in each race. Let’s play the sequence on a $30 budget:

Race 9: $50,000 maiden claiming (5:18 p.m. ET)

Wayne Catalano conditions the coupled entry of #1 Major Attraction and #1A Fast Cash for Gary and Mary West, and while it’s unclear whether one will scratch (both have jockey Martin Garcia named to ride), either one would be formidable while dropping in class out of maiden special weight company. Major Attraction in particular brings solid Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation, and he enters off a narrow defeat against the promising Bank in a 6-furlong dash at Oaklawn Park.

Assuming Major Attraction starts, the coupled entry is worth singling to kick off the Pick 3. Otherwise, the late-running #9 Bubba Caballo (runner-up for a $50,000 tag at Oaklawn in March) and the first-time starter #10 Sir Alfred James are warrant including as backup.

Race 10: Allowance/optional claiming (5:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Miss T Too, a speedy daughter of Into Mischief, easily wired a maiden race at Gulfstream Park while defeating the next-out winners Envoutante and Mylastfirstkiss. She subsequently finished second in a 7-furlong allowance sprint at Churchill Downs, beaten less than two lengths by future Dogwood (G3) winner Four Graces. With a pair of 90+ Brisnet Speed ratings to her credit, Miss T Too is the filly to beat for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, so we’ll take a chance and single her in the middle leg of our Pick 3.

Race 11: Louisville (G3, 6:22 p.m. ET)

Grade 1-winning veteran #5 Arklow and defending Louisville winner #6 Tiz the Slam loom as the two favorites in this 1 1/2-mile turf test, but both are returning from layoffs and will need to rebound from sub-par performances.

#8 Jais’s Solitude is a longshot alternative. in his lone start over 1 1/2 miles, he unleashed a powerful finish to cross the wire first in the Bald Eagle Derby at Laurel Park. Poor pace setups in shorter races have muddied his recent form, so stretching back out in distance holds the potential to reawaken Jais’s Solitude at a big price.

Race 9, $3 Pick 3: 1,9,10 with 1 with 5,6,8 ($27)
Race 9, $1 Pick 3: 1 with 1 with 5,6,8 ($3)
Total: $30

Good luck!

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The Kentucky Derby returns to Churchill Downs on Saturday, Sept. 5.