DeRosa Reveals His #TSshowdown Selections

For horses on the Triple Crown trail, a win or second-place finish on Saturday in any one of the three Kentucky Derby Championship Series races would a likely spot in the starting gate for the 1 ¼-mile classic, but for TwinSpires.com players still alive in the $1-million Road to the Kentucky Derby SHOWdown, a third-place finish by any of their horses will do.

Saturday’s action will get us about to the halfway point in SHOWdown, as the Gotham, Tampa Bay Derby, and San Felipe are races seven, eight, and nine, respectively, on the 20-race series that culminates with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of this weekend’s prep races, click here.

From a show perspective, this weekend’s races seem pretty straight forward to me. I don’t love two of my three picks as win bets, but it’s difficult to see either El Kabeir in the Gotham or Dortmund in the San Felipe not hitting the board. The Tampa Bay Derby is different. Ocean Knight is my pick on top and to hit the board, but it wouldn’t shock me to see a reversal of his last win and this is a good enough group that he can race OK and still be fourth. Plus, I’m admittedly a little gun shy on trainer McLaughlin following the egg he laid two weeks ago with Frosted in the Fountain of Youth and Imperia in the Risen Star StakesIf . Still, anyone else in the field feels like an even bigger gamble to me.

As for El Kabeir, he’s consistent enough to be trustworthy as a show bet. His Withers didn’t give me a ton of confidence that he won’t be beat here by a horse getting good at the right time, but the chance that there are three such horses in this field seems small.

In the San Felipe, I prefer Ocho Ocho Ocho as a win prospect because I think he’s as fast as Dortmund and will be twice the price. However, between the layoff and a deep group chasing him, I’ll stick with Dortmund for SHOWdown purposes because no way does he show up here for a gallop around the track. He’s going to run his race, and that is absolutely good enough to hit the board more often than any other horse in this race.

There are plenty of ways to get involved in the TwinSpires.com SHOWdown promotion. If you’re a member, simply place $20 show bets on the horse of your choice in each race. For every race you get correct that one potential share to be vested on Kentucky Derby day. Everyone who gets the Derby right splits a $10,000 pot, and the more shares you have the more money you get.

If social media contests are your thing, then we have you covered there, too. Tweet your pick to show for each race using the hashtag #TSshowdown and you could win $20/race. Comment on our Facebook wall, and we’ll draw from among those who get all three races right and award $100.

Pass the time by watching ON POINT and listening to the Brisnet.com-Predicteform.com podcast.