Florida Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report

The $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park highlights the second weekend of major Kentucky Derby qualifiers. One of seven prep races awarding a combined 170 points toward a Kentucky Derby berth (100-40-20-10), the 1 1/8-mile event has attracted a field of 11. Before we analyze the BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s Florida Derby field, let’s take review the numbers for the previous 10 winners. Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for Florida Derby winners entering the race:

Horse		BRIS Speed
Audible		105
		94
Always Dreaming		84
		89
Nyquist		103
		98
Materiality		100
		96
Constitution		96
		88
Orb		102
		89
Take Charge Indy		109
		96
Dialed In		98
		104
Ice Box		90
		94
Quality Road		110
		97

Analysis: Six-of-10 winners had earned a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating, five from the previous effort and one from the penultimate start. Constitution (88-96) didn’t meet the threshold but brought improving numbers into the race. Audible (94-105), Orb (89-102), Quality Road (97-110) and Take Charge Indy (96-109) entered the Florida Derby off a race in which their Speed ratings increased by 10+ points. Three-of-10 showed declining numbers, with Ice Box (94-90) and Always Dreaming (89-84) possessing significantly lower Speed ratings than the rest. Always Dreaming’s numbers are an outlier in my estimation because they didn’t come under normal race conditions – they were essentially paid workouts as he controlled the pace from the start under a gallop and never got out of third gear winning by 10+ lengths against grossly overmatched competition. It’s not a leap of faith to believe Always Dreaming could have established a realistic pace in both races (resulting in a much higher Speed rating) and won easily as well. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post order):

Horse		BRIS Speed
Hidden Scroll		91
		102
Current		90
		81
Harvey Wallbanger		95
		81
Bourbon War		94
		96
Everfast		73
		94
Hard Belle		79
		72
Maximum Security		100
		96
Bodexpress		97
		80
Code of Honor		95
		91
Union’s Destiny		87
		99
Garter and Tie		89
		97

Analysis: Maximum Security (last race) and Hidden Scroll (two starts back) are the only runners to notch a triple-digit BRIS Speed figure in the last two starts. Easy to appreciate the Speed rating improvement from Maximum Security’s last three starts (94-96-100). Code of Honor (91-95) also brings a pattern we’ve seen from past winners. Everfast (21-point), Union’s Destiny (12-point) and Hidden Scroll (11-point) show a precipitous Speed figure decline in the last outing, which hasn’t been characteristic of Florida Derby winners the last decade. Last-out graded stakes winner Harvey Wallbanger ranks among the top four with a 95 last-out Speed rating and is listed at 15-1 on the morning line. Current, Hard Belle, Union’s Destiny and Garter and Tie will need to improve significantly to be competitive.