Gulfstream Park: How to bet the $4,619 Super High 5 carryover

Hey, check it out—the opening race on Sunday at Gulfstream Park boasts a $4,619 carryover in the $1 Super High 5, and winning a share isn’t mathematically difficult.

Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt, and only seven horses have been entered, which equates to 2,520 possible outcomes. That’s far more manageable than the 95,040 possible outcomes generated by a 12-horse field.

But despite its mathematical simplicity, Race 1 is shaping up to be a competitive event. The five favorites offer morning-line odds ranging from 5-2 to 9-2, so on paper the race is wide open.

The slim favorite is #4 Conceptus (5-2), a first-time starter trained by Gustavo Delgado. Conceptus has put together a respectable work tab, and it’s worth noting she’s a daughter of young stallion Sharp Azteca, who is siring 29% winners from first-time starters. But Delgado wins at just a 7% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and at an 11% rate with juveniles debuting at Gulfstream since 2017. It’s possible Conceptus will need to get a race under her belt before finding peak form.

#1 Da Journeygirl (3-1) is an intriguing alternative. After finishing fourth and sixth in her first two starts against Florida-bred maiden special weight company, Da Journeygirl entered a $25,000 maiden claimer and set the pace before staying on to finish second. She’s stepping up in class for Sunday’s heat, but the 74 Brisnet Speed rating Da Journeygirl posted last time out tops this field by seven points, and she’s the only obvious pacesetter in the field.

#2 Chipmunk (9-2) finished a rallying third in her debut for a $50,000 tag at Gulfstream and is eligible to factor again for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. The competition she faced on debut was decent; the winner prevailed by a clear margin, and the runner-up came back to win her next start.

One longshot worth supporting is #3 Mursal (20-1). She hasn’t factored in her first two starts against maiden special weight company at Gulfstream, but her latest effort—an eighth-place finish—produced a 64 Brisnet Speed rating. She might get involved at a price while dropping in class and adding blinkers.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2 with 4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7 with ALL ($27)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,6,7 with 2 with 3,4,6,7 with ALL ($27)
  Total: $54

Good luck!