Handicapping Fair Grounds All-Stakes Pick 4

The first of three Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Fair Grounds, Saturday’s $200,000 Lecomte (G3) shapes up as a good betting race with a full field of 14 and anchors an All-Stakes Pick 4. Here’s my thoughts on the Pick 4 sequence: Louisiana (race 9) Silver Dust (#5) didn’t show much early in his career, winning only one of his first 15 starts, but the gelding is finding his best form presently. A good neck second over a muddy track three back, the gray son of Tapit exits a pair of convincing wins at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds and returns to stakes company on the upswing for Bret Calhoun. Silver Dust possesses good tactical speed and the 8 ½-furlong trip is a perfect fit. Harlan Punch (#2) exits a nice showing versus stakes rivals at Remington Park and will make his second start for Brad Cox in this spot. He should be prominent from the start and relished the 8 ½-furlong distance. Phat Man (#3) likes Fair Grounds and appears to be going well presently for Joe Sharp. Colonel E.R Bradley (race 10) Big Changes has scratched in favor of a Gulfstream stakes and his defection leaves Great Wide Open (#8) as the one to beat. He handled turf with give to it when finishing second in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) three back and romped by nearly five lengths over similar conditions in the December 22 Diliberto Memorial at Fair Grounds. I’ll single the in-form gelding. Silverbulletday (race 11) I will use five of the seven in this contentious affair. Mandy Blue (#7) is the top choice. She got up in time to break maiden on main track and talented filly exits a sharp turf score for Cox. Like the outside draw and the Smart Strike filly will take some beating if she holds form switching back to the main track. Liora (#4) is the one to beat off a wire-to-wire upset in the Golden Rod (G2) but may not get the same trip today. Grandaria (#2) will be finishing well. Needs Supervision (#5) and Cowgirls Like Us (#6) are also in with a chance. Lecomte (race 12) Plus Que Parfait (#12) ran a big race when jumping straight to stakes company with a neck second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and the Brendan Walsh trainee will take some beating if he keeps moving forward off that effort as expected. Roiland (#7) experienced a troubled trip when rallying for fifth last time and on paper, he appears likely to receive a proper set-up for his late kick today. I won’t get beat with the inside speed, Malpais (#2), who exits an impressive maiden win over track. The Hard Spun colt could get brave up front if left alone. Tackett (#3) has won two straight at Fair Grounds for Michael Stidham including a narrow win over Owendale, who came back to flatter Tackett with a sharp allowance tally on Thursday. Hog Creek Hustle (#6) will be rolling late. War of Will (#8) is a talented type and the only question is whether he’s better on turf. Pick 4 ticket (races 9-12) 2,3,5 8 2,4,5,6,7 2,3,6,7,8,12 $45 Good luck!