Holland's North American free racing picks for Oct. 17

Tim Holland kicks off this weekend in racing with his expert picks at Keeneland, Belmont Park, Monmouth, and Woodbine.

Keeneland

Race 7

Maiden fillies on the main track include #11 Thinking (9-2), who was not a threat when unplaced in her debut over 6 1/2 furlongs on turf at Kentucky Downs last month. Dark bay should be suited to dirt being by leading freshman sire Nyquist and is a half-sister to Bajan, who finished third in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Trainer Motion wins with 18% of his second-time starters, and filly can be along from off the pace with Gaffalione taking the mount.

Race 8

#10 Temple (8-1) flattened out to finish sixth after making some progress in the Tapit S. at Kentucky Downs last month. Son of Temple City has won one of three previous starts at this distance, and trainer Maker wins with 17% of his runners on grass and has won with 25% of his starters at this meet. Gelding should get a good trip from off the pace under Franco, who has won with 27% of his rides for the barn in the past 60 days.

Belmont Park

Race 10

Plenty of early pace should help the chances of #10 Jc’s Shooting Star (6-1). Mare failed to make an impact in two latest outings but closed from off the pace to win three back in her most recent start at this level on dirt. Bay finished second in two of three previous starts at this distance and can be along late under Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for the 8-year-old's most recent victory.

Monmouth

Race 5

Trainer Thomas wins with 34% of his second-time starters and saddles #6 Unbridled Mischief (4-1), who weakened to finish fourth in her debut over 5 1/2 furlongs on grass here in early August. Daughter of Into Mischief cost $600K as a yearling and has worked well since her first outing for Thomas, who wins with 28% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Filly can be in good position from the start with Maragh in the saddle.

Woodbine

Race 8

#6 Javanica (6-1) impressed when rallying from off the pace to break her maiden over one mile on turf at Arlington last month in her second outing. Trainer Harty has won with one of his five runners shipping here, and daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is a half-sister to Antionette, who won the Saratoga Oaks Invitational. Bay can be along from off the pace with Wilson riding.