Holland's North American free racing picks for Oct. 8

Tim Holland brings his expert analysis of North American racing to provide his top free picks at Keeneland, Gulfstream Park West, and Delaware.

Keeneland

Race 7

#3 Cambeliza (12-1) was promoted to first after passing the post second in her latest over 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs last month in her second start of the year. Daughter of Curlin finished well when third in one previous start on this turf and trainer Delacour wins with 22% of his runners third time off a layoff. 4-year-old can be along from just off the pace with Graham retaining the mount.

Race 8

Chad Brown wins with 30% of his second-time starters and saddles #9 Financial One (7-2), who comes off a second-place finish in her debut over 7 furlongs at Churchill last month. Daughter of Malibu Moon is a half-sister to champion older female Close Hatches and has worked well since her first outing for Brown, who wins with 32% of his runners going a route for the first time. Filly can be in good position throughout under Castellano, who has won with 33% of his rides for the barn in the past 60 days.

Race 9

#9 Monarch’s Glen (10-1) weakened to finish third of four runners after leading early on a sloppy main track at Saratoga in his latest in August but, finished a good second behind subsequent Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) winner Digital Age at this distance on turf two back. Gelding has won four of his 19 starts on grass and trainer Gargan has won with 24% of his runners this year. Gelding can be along late with Hernandez in the irons.

Gulfstream Park West

Race 6

Trainer Crichton wins with 27% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days and saddles #4 Bajan Girl (6-1), who has not raced since finishing unplaced in the Honey Ryder S. on turf across town in early May. Filly finished a good fourth in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) behind Swiss Skydiver on the main track two back and Crichton wins with 22% making this surface change. Daughter of Speightstown can be running from just off the pace with Prado riding.

Delaware

Race 3

Maidens on turf include #10 Killer Dress (9-2), who debuts for 16% first-out trainer Stidham. Daughter of decent young sire Carpe Diem is a half-sister to two winners on grass and has been working well for Stidham, who has won with 26% of his starters at this meet. Bay can win at first asking under Pedroza, who has won with two of his last four rides for the barn.