Holland's North American Racing Picks for Jun. 15

Handicapper Tim Holland starts a new week of picks as June sees the return of most prominent racing circuits. With more options to run, fields can become more interesting to handicap. For this first time since April, Tim has a 20% win rate after 638 races that contains a slight loss overall (2.6%) but profit of 16% with selections at 5-1 or higher.

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 7

#3 Geography (5-1) flattened out to finish fourth after making an early bid at this level last month in his first start since being claimed by Jorge Delgado in March. Son of Giant’s Causeway is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Winchester, and Delgado wins with 17% of his runners second off the claim. Gelding can be in good position throughout under Morales, who has been winning with 27% of his mounts on grass.

Indiana Grand

Race 5

Trainer Morey wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and saddles #5 Bay Muzik (5-1), who has not been seen since fading to finish unplaced after showing early speed on dirt at Will Rogers in early April. 6-year-old finished third in the Joe Hernandez (G2) sprinting on turf at Santa Anita earlier this year for Morey, who has won with 25% of his starters this year. Gelding has won four of his nine career starts on grass and figures to be fastest early with Jimenez up.

Race 7

Allowance event on grass includes #6 Mr. Tip (15-1), who makes his turf debut off a never-threatening unplaced effort in a tough allowance at Oaklawn in April. Dark bay should be suited to the surface, being by Mr Speaker and out of a mare by Candy Ride. He has won one of three career starts for trainer Sisterson, who has won with 13% of his runners this year. Dark bay has been working well and can be along from off the pace under Cannon, who has won with two of his last nine rides for the barn.

Louisiana Downs

Race 5

Ronnie Cravens wins with 18% of his second-time starters and saddles #7 Pacific Ocean (9-2), who closed to finish fourth in his debut at this distance at Sam Houston in mid-March. Son of 14% grass sire Bodemeister is a half-brother to Flexibility, who won the Jerome (G3), and Cravens has won with 13% of his runners since the beginning of this year. Gelding can be along late with Lozada riding.

Fairmount Park

Race 1

#6 Running Scared (15-1) debuts for trainer Lynch, who won with one of his last eight first-time starters. Daughter of Hero’s and Crooks is a half-sister to three winners and works include a decent 4-furlong move in :49 3/5 from the gate recently for Lynch, who wins with 10% of his runners overall in maiden claiming events. Chestnut could be ready for a decent first outing at good odds with Diego in the irons.