Horses to bet (and bet against) in the American Pharoah Stakes

On Friday at approximately 4:30 p.m. PT, racing fans and handicappers across the country will turn their attention to Santa Anita for the $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes (G1).

This 1 1/16-mile “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the November 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) also serves as a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep race that offers 10 qualification points to the winner. There is a lot on the line, so it’s not surprising to see the American Pharoah attract a high-class field of nine promising juveniles.

I’m going to distill my handicapping opinions to five key points.

1. I will play against #8 Nucky, #6 Defense Wins and #2 Fore Left, who finished first, third and fifth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). The Futurity was a race that fell apart late (the final three furlongs elapsed in more than :40), and it also came back very slow on the Beyer speed figure scale.
2. By extension I will play against the undefeated Best Pal Stakes (G2) winner #9 Collusion Illusion, whose form lines against Defense Wins and Fore Left suggest he’s in a similar league to the Futurity competitors and perhaps a cut below the up-and-coming maiden winners in the American Pharoah field.
3. I will hesitate to embrace #7 Shoplifted, who seemed to pick up the pieces more than anything else when he rallied to finish second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Shoplifted has shipped across the country and will face a deep field of locals. He might hit the board, but I’ll avoid playing him on top.
4. I will respect #3 Eight Rings, who will add blinkers after he made a sharp left-hand turn to dislodge his rider early in the Futurity. Despite falling 15 or 20 lengths behind his rivals, the riderless Eight Rings stayed engaged in the race and rallied to catch up with the pack, which suggests he has the mind of a professional racehorse who wants to compete. He romped to victory on debut, with huge speed figures (94 Beyer and 100 Brisnet), and as a son of Empire Maker, he is bred to thrive going two turns.
5. I will support the well-bred Del Mar maiden winners #1 American Theorem and #4 Express Train. The latter finished second behind Eight Rings in their mutual debut, then came back to crush a one-mile maiden race by 14 lengths with a 100 Brisnet speed figure, which makes this son of Union Rags the only horse in the field to have won (or even run) around two turns. As for American Theorem, this son of American Pharoah rallied professionally to win his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs. He trained sharply beforehand and is bred to run long, so American Theorem has a lot of upside.

The key now is to distill these opinions into a wagering strategy. I’ll make Express Train the key to my tickets, playing him in the exacta and trifecta, while emphasizing American Theorem and Eight Rings in the remaining slots.

$3 exacta: 4 with 1,3 ($6) $2 trifecta: 4 with 1,3 with 1,3,5,7 ($12) $2 trifecta: 1,3 with 4 with 1,3,5,7 ($12)

Good luck!