Horses to note on a rainy Pegasus World Cup Day

Rain has become a significant factor as we enter Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream Park. The main track is listed as “sloppy” and the first three races carded for the turf have been transferred to the main track, prompting a flurry of scratches – including champion Stormy Liberal from the Gulfstream Park (off the) Turf Sprint. At this writing, the rest of the turf stakes remain on a course opening as “good.” But that is liable to deteriorate if the rain keeps coming all day. Here are a few horses who could be impacted the most by conditions. If the 6TH, the South Beach, stays on the turf, note that #9 Dolce Lili (5-1) has scored two of her three wins on rain-affected courses (good and yielding). If it gets rained off, #11 Piedi Bianchi (20-1) is worth including as a handy winner of her only off-track start. Key contender #12 Road to Victory (4-1) should cope with either surface, although admittedly she’s untested on anything other than fast and firm. For the 7TH, the Hurricane Bertie (G3) on dirt, I agree with my colleague James Scully that #5 Blamed (5-1) is likely to handle the slop, and won’t be put off my initial support. It could also be significant that #2 Dream Pauline (3-1) and #8 Stormy Embrace (4-1) ran one-two in the Sugar Swirl (G3) in the slop last out over this track. In the 8TH, the La Prevoyante (G3), #3 English Affair (8-1) already looked like a value play, and the winner of the Cardinal (G3) over a yielding Churchill arguably moves up with the rain. #9 Santa Monica (7-2) remains a logical threat, but Holy Helena may prefer it firmer out there. In the 9TH, the Fred Hooper (G3), I was willing to forgive #8 Copper Town (6-1) his Cigar Mile (G1) debacle, like my colleague Vance Hanson, and the slop should help a son of 21-percent mud sire Speightstown out of a mare by 20-percent mud sire Ghostzapper. In the 10TH, the W.L. McKnight (G3), course condition shouldn’t have a material bearing on the top contenders. That said, #8 Hunting Horn (8-1) (who can handle a bit of give) is an attractive price for a highly tried Aidan O’Brien horse on the class drop. #7 Canessar (5-1) and #12 Village King (10-1) also appear value. Conditions could play the decisive role in the 11TH, the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), especially for the international pair. If the rain tapers off and it stays closer to good, perhaps Magic Wand can get away with it, but this isn’t the ideal scenario O’Brien wanted. Aerolithe may be more adversely affected, between the pace and stamina angles discussed in the scouting report. Indeed, the projected stiff pace on rain-slowed ground injects a new set of variables for the home team too over the 1 3/16-mile trip. I wouldn’t be surprised if an upset is brewing with overpriced contenders like #8 Delta Prince (15-1) and #3 Channel Maker (12-1) both capable on their day. That’s not to say the Turf won’t end up being formful, but I suspect it’s worth hedging in the circumstances. Note that Channel Maker carries 117 pounds, a perk for foregoing Lasix. An off track in the 12th, the Pegasus World Cup (G1), would suit #5 Accelerate (9-5) just fine since he aired in a wet-fast Santa Anita H. (G1). Mud could aid the chances of #6 Tom’s d’Etat (20-1), who posted his best career BRIS Speed rating (107) on a “good,” sealed track at Saratoga, and #12 Patternrecognition (10-1), two-for-two on off going and possibly finding his speed buoyed farther than I first thought. Conversely, conditions are an open question for #6 City of Light (5-2), who hasn’t raced or worked on an off track. I’d give him benefit of the doubt just for his sheer class, but if you were putting him on top, it might be worth including a back-up as insurance. Tom's d'Etat by Hodges Photography