Horses to single in Turfway Park, Charles Town carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson suggests singles for a pair of lucrative Saturday carryovers at Turfway Park and Charles Town.

Turfway Park, Race 1: $86,881 Pick 5 carryover (6:15 p.m. ET)

Turfway Park heads into the weekend with an enticing $86,881 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5. With 58 entries and 207,636 possible outcomes before scratches, it looks like a downright difficult sequence to hit.

The best chance to find a single likely comes in Race 2, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for juveniles. The morning line favorite is #5 Grantham (9-5), a son of Declaration of War conditioned by Mike Maker, who has won at a 22% rate at Turfway since 2016.

Grantham showed plenty of promise in his Nov. 19 debut sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. After settling a couple lengths off the early pace, Grantham finished up nicely to secure runner-up honors with an 83 Brisnet Speed figure.

None of Grantham’s rivals have run faster, so the bay colt is clearly the runner to beat while stretching out in distance. He’s bred to relish racing around two turns, and Maker wins at a solid 18% rate with second-time starters. Throw in the presence of leading jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 26% winner this meet), and Grantham has the appearance of a trustworthy single.

Charles Town, Race 4: $166,458 Pick 6 mandatory payout (8:32 p.m. ET)

What’s better than pursuing a 20-cent Pick 6 with a low 12% takeout rate? Definitely pursuing the same Pick 6 with a $166,458 carryover slated for a mandatory payout.

(There’s also a $33,985 carryover in the Pick 5, which gets underway in Race 5 at 9:02 p.m. ET.)

Just like at Turfway, a competitive sequence awaits, with 71 horses in the entries before scratches. Even when you exclude the numerous also-eligibles from consideration, there are still one million possible outcomes.

It’s tough to find a single in a sequence so competitive, though Race 7—an allowance for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs—provides one possible option at a fair price.

Morning line favorite #1 My Best Friend (9-5) is a logical favorite at first glance, since she brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold in her first start for ultra-hot trainer Anthony Farrior. But she’s never run over the bullring oval at Charles Town, and two of her last three starts have been unexpectedly subpar. Can she be trusted?

I’m tempted to oppose My Best Friend and single #5 Boundtobebad (3-1) instead. With a 21-4-8-6 career resume at Charles Town, Boundtobebad clearly handles this tricky track just fine. In fact, she’s won or placed in eight stakes at Charles Town.

Boundtobebad hasn’t missed the exacta in her last five starts and enters off a sharp victory in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Charles Town. Sprinting has been a strong suit for Boundtobebad, and she has the tactical speed to be prominent from the outset. If My Best Friend struggles at all over this tight-turning track, Boundtobebad can spring a mild surprise.

Good luck!