Hot Melissa key to the early Pick 4 at Fair Grounds

The early Pick 4 on Saturday at Fair Grounds features small but competitive fields, with the opener looming as an especially compelling challenge.

The sequence should be winnable on a modest budget, so let’s put together a play:

Race 1: $5,000 claiming (1:30 p.m. ET)

You can make a case for almost anyone in this 5 1/2-furlong sprint, restricted to Louisiana-bred fillies and mares who have never won three races. Rather than spread deep, we’ll single #7 Hot Melissa and hope she’s ready to fire a big effort.

Whereas most of her rivals have been racing heavily, Hot Melissa has run just once since August 2018, leading all the way to win a 6-furlong, $5,000 claiming race on Jan. 16. True, she was facing slightly easier company—non-winners of two races lifetime—but Hot Melissa dominated by 3 1/2 lengths for high-percentage trainer Ron Faucheux, who strikes at a 29% rate with horses running for the second time off a layoff.

Race 2: $5,000 claiming (1:59 p.m. ET)

Trainer Matt Shirer has been hot at Fair Grounds this winter, compiling a 43% win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate. For this reason alone we have to respect #7 Fist of Rage, who missed by just a half-length over this class, track, and distance (1 mile and 70 yards) when making his first start for Shirer on Jan. 12.

We’ll back up Fist of Rage with the speedy #5 Half Trick (2-for-2 on fast dirt tracks) and #6 Eastside Boy (who drops down multiple class levels for trainer Angel Montano, a 26% winner with this move).

Race 3: $30,000 claiming (2:28 p.m. ET)

Assuming this 1 1/16-mile turf race with multiple entry conditions stays on the grass, #5 Bella Belle will be the mare to beat. Conditioned by hot trainer Greg Foley (26% wins at Fair Grounds this winter), Bella Belle has tactical speed, competitive Brisnet Speed ratings, and—just as importantly—consistency. She’s cracked the trifecta in her last three starts, even while stepping up steadily in class.

#3 Wings of Fury, a maiden claiming winner on Jan. 1, also has tactical speed, and there’s a chance she and Bella Belle will run 1-2 from start to finish. We’ll use both unless this race is rained off the turf, in which case the main track-only entrant #7 Blunt Force—a standout at this class level on dirt—will be an easy single for high-percentage trainer Tom Amoss.

Race 4: $15,000 maiden claiming (2:57 p.m. ET)

We’ll wrap up the sequence with #5 Lafitte’s Fleet and #4 Rancho Bargo, who finished second and third in a reasonably quick race over this class level on Jan. 9. In a small field without much speed, they can dominate from start to finish.

The Bets

$2 Pick 4: 7 with 5,6,7 with 3,5 with 4,5 ($24)

If Race 3 is rained off the turf, we’ll play this alternate ticket instead:

$4 Pick 4: 7 with 5,6,7 with 7 with 4,5 ($24)

Good luck!