How to bet exotic wagers in the Louisiana Derby

The Fair Grounds portion of the Road to the Kentucky Derby concludes on Saturday, with the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2), the first of the 2020-2021 prep races that awards 100 qualification points to the winner.

Eight horses have been entered in the 1 3/16-mile race, and at first glance, the race looks chalky. Generating a solid return on investment in exotic wagers — like the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta — will require a bold strategy, because spreading with too many horses on top will cut into profit margins.

With this approach in mind, let’s break down the contenders into four categories — top choice, second choice, trifecta contenders, and superfecta contenders.

Top choice

#4 Proxy (7-2)

The runner-up in both the Lecomte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, Proxy has shown flashes of serious talent, even while racing greenly.

He’ll add blinkers for the Louisiana Derby, which sets the stage for a more focused and professional effort.

He is bred to relish 1 3/16 miles and can vie for victory at a fair price under jockey John Velazquez.

Second choice

#6 Mandaloun (8-5)

This Juddmonte Farms homebred is going to be a clear favorite, after he won the Risen Star by 1 1/4 lengths.

He has tactical speed and has been training sharply for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, so it is hard to knock his chances. Even if Proxy wins the day, I’ll be surprised if Mandaloun finishes out of the exacta.

Trifecta contenders

#5 Hot Rod Charlie (3-1)

The runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and third by a neck in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), Hot Rod Charlie benefited from fast fractions in front of him on both occasions but clearly has the talent to compete at this level.

He’ll have his work cut out to catch the local runners, but a top-three finish is well within reach.

#7 Midnight Bourbon (5-1)

A veteran of four starts on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Midnight Bourbon defeated Proxy and Mandaloun when he escaped with an easy lead in the Lecomte.

But a quicker pace in the Risen Star saw Midnight Bourbon falter to finish third, and the longer distance of the Louisiana Derby may limit his potential to the final slot of the trifecta.

Superfecta contenders

#1 Starrinmydreams (20-1)

After he broke slowly in the Risen Star, Starrininmydreams fought his rider hard around the first turn, which eliminated any chance at victory.

He showed tactical speed when he won maiden and allowance races at Churchill Downs, so a clean break and a relaxed trip Saturday can produce an improved performance.

#3 Run Classic (12-1)

The runner-up in a deep maiden sprint at Fair Grounds, Run Classic relished the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in his second start and broke his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths.

The son of Runhappy is on the rise and has the Brisnet Speed ratings to vie for a spot on the board.

Taking all of these insights together, here’s how we’ll play the Louisiana Derby.

$15 exacta: 4 with 6
$10 trifecta: 4 with 6 with 5,7 ($20)
$2.50 superfecta: 4 with 6 with 5,7 with 1,3,5,7 ($15)
Total: $50

Good luck!