How to Bet Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager

By Dick Powell

The second of four pools, Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager runs Friday-Sunday this weekend and offers intriguing value. 

Let’s start with last Sunday’s Super Bowl LII. When the conference championships were finished two weeks before, the New England Patriots were immediately made a six-point favorite. Instead of going up, the number came down and with injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady, it was expected that the point spread would go back up when New England bettors saw their two stars were physically fit. 

Never happened! The point spread dropped down to four or 4 ½ at game time in most markets so if you liked the Eagles, you were better off betting them early instead of late. If you were real shrewd, you could have taken the Eagles plus six then bet the Patriots minus four to try to get a middle if the Pats won by five. 

So the early line is not always a bad line. In the Future Wager bet, I would wait until Sunday afternoon to decide who to play. And remember, we are picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby (G1), not a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race. 

Thus, Dosage Index and birthdays become important to know now instead of finding out a week from the Derby that the horse you have on a ticket doesn’t have the pedigree or is too young to win.  

To have a frame of reference, I went back to 2000 for each Kentucky Derby winner’s foal date and dosage index. Two things stick out. First, the dosage index, the ratio of speed to stamina in a horse’s pedigree, is nearly irrelevant. The last three winners of the Derby were over 4.00 and five of the last 18 as well. 

Second, the foal date seems much more important. The only May foaling date was MINE THAT BIRD on May 10, 2006.

Second, the foal date seems much more important. The only May foaling date was MINE THAT BIRD on May 10, 2006. The list, as you can see, is tilted towards favoring early foal dates. 

Year		Kentucky Derby Winner		Foal Date		Dosage Index
2017		Always Dreaming		02/25		5.00
2016		Nyquist		03/10		7.00
2015		American Pharoah		02/02		4.33
2014		California Chrome		02/18		3.29
2013		Orb		02/24		3.21
2012		I’ll Have Another		04/01		2.11
2011		Animal Kingdom		03/20		1.67
2010		Super Saver		03/18		3.00
2009		Mine That Bird		05/10		4.33
2008		Big Brown		04/10		1.67
2007		Street Sense		02/23		2.14
2006		Barbaro		04/29		2.41
2005		Giacomo		02/16		4.33
2004		Smarty Jones		02/28		3.29
2003		Funny Cide		04/20		1.53
2002		War Emblem		02/20		3.40
2001		Monarchos		02/09		1.40
2000		Fusaichi Pegasus		04/12		3.67

So let’s look at the 23 horses that are listed in Kentucky Derby Future Wager-Pool 2 

#		Horse		Foal Date		Dosage Index		M/L
1		AUDIBLE		02/19		5.00		12-1
2		AVERY ISLAND		04/06		2.64		20-1
3		BOLT D’ORO		03/17		3.00		10-1
4		CATHOLIC BOY		04/12		2.08		20-1
5		COMBATANT		05/02		2.60		50-1
6		COPPER BULLET		03/07		3.00		50-1
7		ENTICED		03/23		3.00		30-1
8		FIRENZE FIRE		03/17		4.14		30-1
9		FREE DROP BILLY		05/03		1.74		20-1
10		GOOD MAGIC		03/01		3.40		10-1
11		INSTILLED REGARD		04/06		1.59		30-1
12		MASK		02/02		3.33		12-1
13		MCKINZIE		02/25		2.33		8-1
14		MENDELSSOHN		05/17		1.80		30-1
15		MONTAUK		04/13		3.00		20-1
16		MOURINHO		05/21		3.00		12-1
17		PRINCIPE GUILHERME		02/20		3.00		30-1
18		RETIREMENT FUND		04/02		1.57		30-1
19		SOLOMINI		04/29		3.00		20-1
20		SPORTING CHANCE		02/21		2.20		50-1
21		STRIKE POWER		04/27		3.67		20-1
22		TIZ MISCHIEF		05/06		3.00		30-1
23		UNTAMED DOMAIN		04/02		1.46		30-1

So, there is a 1-in-18 chance to be a late foal and win the Derby and a 5-in-18 chance to have a dosage index above 4.00. It might be anecdotal due to the small sample but four of the five Derby winners that had high dosage indexes were very early foals so maybe physical maturity can overcome a gene pool tilted towards speed.

And, the one Kentucky Derby winner that had both a high dosage index and a late foaling date, MINE THAT BIRD, paid $103.20 so if you like someone that is bred for speed and is a late foal, make sure you get a good price.  

Trying to balance those two factors with the morning line odds, I can throw out MOURINHO and MENDELLSOHN. TIZ MISCHIEF is not worth it even at 30/1 as he will still be a 2yo when the race is run. 

My plan is get a longshot to at least make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The perfect horse in pool 2 is to have a longshot win his next start and go to Kentucky as one of the favorites. Then you have a great chance to hedge your bet and lock in a profit. You want to avoid horses that will not see much of an odds drop between now and then. A 12/1 shot that goes off at 8/1 in the Derby is not worth the risk. I can always wait until the day of the race and get the 8/1.  

The horse that fits the bill for me is COMBATANT. At 50/1 in the morning line, he was second in the Smarty Jones Stakes last out at Oaklawn Park and has the benefit of Steve Asmussen to get him to the first Saturday in May. If he runs well in his next two starts, Combatant will be worth it.

If Combatant wins one of his final preps, he will be really worth it. 

By the way, Combatant is not my pick to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby. He’s the horse I’m playing in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.