How to bet Saturday’s All-Stakes Pick 4 at Keeneland

Vertical Oak wins the Open Mind Stakes (c) Churchill Downs/Coady Photography

by Scott Shapiro

The first Saturday of the Keeneland fall meeting offers horseplayers a loaded 11-race card headlined by a $350,000 guaranteed Pick 4 comprised of all “Win & You’re In” Breeders’ Cup races.

The sequence commences in Race 7 with The Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) and concludes with an incredibly intriguing rendition of the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

Here are my thoughts on the sequence:

RACE 7: Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2)

This $250,000 event conducted at six panels over the main track drew a competitive field of 10 led by lukewarm morning-line choice Miss Sunset (#3) (3-1). The Cal-bred filly makes her second start off the layoff after a workmanlike 1 1/2-length score in the C.E.R.F. Stakes at Del Mar in early September. I respect the daughter of Into Mischief, especially since she has a win and a second in two tries over the Keeneland main track, but the inside draw and the fact there is plenty of speed to her outside makes her a play against for me in this spot.

Vertical Oak (#4) (4-1) is likely to take significant support after an impressive win in the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill Downs in mid-September. The daughter of Giant Oak was farther back in the early going than I expected, but she finished extremely well to get the best of Astrollinthepark late. She meets a stronger group in the TCA on Saturday, but is in great form for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Golden Mischief (#7) (7-2) is the most likely winner after a pair of victories versus non-graded stakes company for trainer Brad Cox. The winner of nine of 20 draws favorably toward the outside, which should allow Florent Geroux to stalk a likely honest early pace and wear down her rivals in the lane.

Awestruck (#5) (15-1) and Chalon (#9) (4-1) will also both make my tickets. Chalon has not been seen since mid-June, but has run second in both of her starts at Keeneland. Awestruck should appreciate the turnback to a sprint after failing to get the job done in three straight two-turn events dating back to mid-June.

RACE 8: First Lady (G1)

Chad Brown holds an extremely strong hand in this one-mile event over the Keeneland sod.

A Raving Beauty (#2) (3-1) threw in a clunker as the 4-5 favorite last out in the Ballston Spa (G2), but prior to that the German-bred put forth a pair of triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings including a win three-back in the Just a Game (G1) at Belmont Park. The five-year-old mare should find herself in a perfect ground-saving spot a few lengths off the early lead. I expect her to rebound in a big way on Saturday.

If A Raving Beauty fails to fire again, Quidura (#3) (2-1) has a big chance to steal it on the front end. The British-bred daughter of Dubawi wired out the field in the aforementioned Ballston Spa in her second start for Brown. I am not sure she is good enough to hold off her stablemate if they both perform at their best, but if not she can take this group gate-to-wire.

If you are looking to get more bang for your buck, Crown Walk (#4) (4-1), Dona Bruja (#7) (6-1) and La Sardane (#9) (15-1) merit consideration.

RACE 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby points, as well as a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) are on the line in the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1). This 1 1/16-mile event for two-year-olds over the main track drew a full field of 14 and offers horseplayers several ways to go.

In the end, I landed on Dream Maker (#5) (5-1). The John Oxley homebred impressed me quite a bit when he came from off the pace in his debut at Churchill Downs in early June to win by three lengths. Something must have gone wrong in July because he was scratched out of the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga before an even fifth in the Hopeful (G1) on closing weekend. The son of Tapit should be more fit after getting a race off the bench under his belt and he should relish the added ground.