How to bet the 2019 Cardinal Conditions Stakes on the European Road to the Kentucky Derby

The Cardinal Conditions Stakes will be run as Race 4 at Chelmsford City on Thursday afternoon in Great Britain. It is the final leg of the European Road to the Kentucky Derby and has attracted a field of nine going one mile on the Polytrack. Only two horses in here are Triple Crown nominated: SHIR KHAN (#8) (15-1) and U S S MICHIGAN (#9) (2-1). ANTILLES (#1) (12-1) finished out of the money in his first three career starts then broke his maiden going seven furlongs on the turf by a neck. The son of War Front is out of a Kingmambo mare who was second in the Epsom Oaks (G1) but there is hardly any dirt pedigree on the female side. Seamie Heffernan picks up the mount. BARYS (#2) (10-1) has two wins on synthetic tracks. He returned to the races with a good win in France going a mile then could not keep up in the Patton Stakes. The son of turf sprint sire Kodiac is out of a dam by dirt sprinter Mr. Greeley but her only win came on turf. Archie Watson wins 21 percent with his young horses racing on synthetics and he adds blinkers in this spot. BATTLE OF WATERLOO (#3) (30-1) finished hopelessly off the board in his first two career starts on the turf then woke up on this track last November when he won by over four lengths. If he can improve off that effort he might be around for a minor piece of this. BYE BYE HONG KONG (#4) (4-1) broke his maiden going six furlongs on the turf second time out then came back in a Group 3 two starts later and missed by a length. The son of Street Sense cost $857,000 last year and his dam is a half-sister to a Grade 2 winner on the dirt at Saratoga. CERTAIN LAD (#5) (12-1) began his career with two wins on the turf. He was a sharp winner two starts back going a mile on soft turf in France but ran poorly last out in Germany in a Group 3. Mick Channon’s record with young horses on synthetic tracks is not strong at all – 9 percent with his two and three-year-olds. DARK VISION (#6) (7-2) is from the red-hot Godolphin Stable and he could be tough in here. The son of Dream Ahead won his first three career starts on the turf then he finished up the season with a poor run behind champion juvenile Too Darn Hot. Trainer Mark Johnston is a winning machine and he gets James Doyle, who shows a flat-bet profit with his last 403 young synthetic mounts. FANAAR (#7) (7-1) made his synthetic-track debut last out at Lingfield and he won by a neck going seven furlongs in fast time despite breaking poorly. The Shadwell runner cost $311,000 as a yearling and gets Jim Crowley back aboard. William Haggas is winning 23 percent overall the past five years and 26 percent with his young runners on synthetic tracks. Shir Khan was beaten by 14 lengths in his career debut on the turf. He was dismissed that day at 50-1 but was still 33-1 when switched to the synthetic track at Wolverhampton where he won by five lengths in fast time. The son of Leroidesanimaux, who could run on any surface, is out of a dam by the versatile Street Cry. U S S Michigan is a son of War Front from the powerful Aidan O’Brien stable who just missed in his career debut on the turf going six furlongs. He came back eight months later at Dundalk over the synthetic and won easily with Ryan Moore aboard. He has a full brother who was a Group 3 winner and his dam is a half-sister to a Grade 1 winner. ANALYSIS Shir Khan lost his career debut on the turf when he broke poorly but I like that he came back 10 days later and romped in his synthetic debut. The time was legitimate and at the price, he is a major threat to morning-line favorite U S S Michigan. We saw how good Oisin Murphy with his fantastic ride aboard Gronkowski in the Dubai World Cup (G1). WAGER Win #8 Exacta #6, #7 and #9 with #8 Trifecta Part Wheel #8 with all with all Coady Photography/Churchill Downs