How to bet the 2019 Louisiana Derby

The $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) will be run as race 13 on Saturday at Fair Grounds going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. It is the first of seven Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races that awards 100 points to the winner, 40 points to the second-place finisher, 20 points to the third-place finisher and 10 points to the fourth-place finisher. Let’s take a look at the field of 11. FREE Louisiana Derby PPs courtesy of Brisnet.com! ROILAND (#1) (12-1) began his career with two wins in three starts but has faltered since moving up in class. Trainer Tom Amoss added blinkers two starts back in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), but the bay colt lost all chance with a slow start. However, in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) last out, he rallied from way back to get third. Roiland will be way back early under jockey James Graham but could get a minor piece with a better start. LEMNISCATE (#2) (15-1) could be one of the speed horses in here. He just missed two starts back when he gunned to the front and was run down by a very good Todd Pletcher trainee named Last Judgement. The son of Lemon Drop Kid broke his maiden earlier this month on March 3 going two turns on the turf at Gulfstream Park and could be dangerous in here if allowed to set a slow pace. LIMONITE (#3) (20-1) broke his maiden second time out going seven furlongs at Keeneland and then came back two starts later in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) with a good third. He had a rough trip in the Risen Star but recently posted a very fast six-furlong breeze to get ready for this. The son of long-winded Lemon Drop Kid is out of a multiple Group 1 winner from Brazil who has produced a Group 1 scorer down there. SUENO (#4) (8-1) was an unexpected stakes horse from the Keith Desormeaux shedrow who began his career at Del Mar with two starts against maiden claimers. He won the second start, was not claimed, and then shipped up to Golden Gate Fields where he won the Gold Rush Stakes. Next time out, he was a good second in the Sham Stakes (G3), beating the Bob Baffert-trained Much Better. Most recently at Oaklawn Park, he was a good second in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Desormeaux wisely skipped the Rebel Stakes (G2) last weekend for this. BY MY STANDARDS (#5) (12-1) has taken four starts to get it together but he broke his maiden here by four lengths on February 16 from post 12 going two turns. He has some minor excuses in his two previous starts and posted a :59 five-furlong bullet breeze for this. The bay colt is from the first crop of Goldencents and is out of a multiple stakes-winning dam who nearly earned $470,000. WAR OF WILL (#6) (6-5) was a Grade 1-placed turf horse in his first four career starts before trainer Mark Casse tried the son of War Front on dirt towards the end of last year. He romped by five lengths on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs to break his maiden by five length and came down here for the winter. The bay colt won the Lecomte easily and overcame post 13 last out to take the Risen Star in a game effort. He could be any kind, but his final times and BRIS Speed ratings have been average, and he figures to be overbet. MR. MONEY (#7) (20-1) broke his maiden third time out when making his two-turn debut at Churchill Downs. He came back with an even fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and returned here last out for the Risen Star, weakening late to finish seventh after making a strong middle move. If he goes forward off that effort in his second start following an 11-week effort, he could be a factor with these. COUNTRY HOUSE (#8) (9-2) is one of many Bill Mott trainees who are on the Triple Crown trail. The Kentucky-bred did nothing in his career debut on the turf at Belmont Park and just missed in his dirt debut going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct at 49-1. That latter race was strong enough that, in his next start at Gulfstream Park, he easily broke his maiden going two turns as the 3-5 favorite. Most recently, the chestnut colt rallied wide for second in the Risen Star after a poor start. He looks tough again if he continues to improve. BANKIT (#9) (20-1) is a New York-bred who began his career in good form and concluded his juvenile season with a second going two turns in the Remington Springboard Mile. Unfortunately, in two stakes races this year against better company, he has not shown much. In his favor is that Irad Ortiz Jr. is back to ride for Steve Asmussen. SPINOFF (#10) (8-1) broke his maiden on a wet track at Gulfstream Park last June for Todd Pletcher, who usually has his best babies in New York or Monmouth Park that time of year. The chestnut colt was then shipped to Saratoga for the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) going 6 1/2 furlongs and finished third behind a very fast sprinter. Off for six months, he returned at Tampa Bay Downs, where he crushed first-level allowance runners by 11 lengths after stalking the early pace and quickening as he pleased under returning jockey John Velazquez. He has trained brilliantly at Palm Meadows for this one. HOG CREEK HUSTLE (#11) (12-1) has three good races over the main track here. He rallied for second in the Lecomte Stakes before suffering a rough trip in the Risen Star. The issue is how does he not have another rough trip in this spot from post 11 with his running style. ANALYSIS There is nothing not to like about War of Will but he figures to be overbet. We want him to take the most money to raise the price on the other contenders. Spinoff looks talented enough to make the move up in class and Pletcher did the same move last year with an allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs to a graded victory out of town at Oaklawn with Magnum Moon. WAGER Win #10 Exacta Key Box #10 with #4, #6, #8 PHOTO: War of Will wins the Risen Star Stakes (c) Holly M. Smith Photography