How to bet the 2019 Saratoga Oaks

A brief glance at the past performances for the inaugural $750,000 Saratoga Oaks at Saratoga on Friday suggests #5 Concrete Rose will be virtually impossible to defeat.

The daughter of Twirling Candy towers over her five rivals on paper. Victorious in five of her six starts, Concrete Rose is undefeated in three starts this season. She has won the Florida Oaks (G3), Edgewood Stakes (G3) and Belmont Oaks (G1) to emerge as clearly the most decorated 3-year-old turf filly in North America. Her victory in the Belmont Oaks was decisive, as she tracked slow fractions and powered clear down the lane to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

Concrete Rose’s tactical speed will be a major asset in what appears to be a paceless race. She should sit a perfect trip, setting or stalking modest fractions, before seizing command in the homestretch. Barring something unforeseen, she should have little difficulty prevailing in the second leg of the New York Racing Association’s new Turf Tiara series.

But it’s worth noting Concrete Rose enjoyed a clean, unencumbered trip in the Belmont Oaks, oblivious to the absolute chaos unfolding behind her. While Concrete Rose was meandering along on a slow pace, #3 Coral Beach was getting repeatedly smashed out of position by a rank and uncontrollable rival. And after she settled nicely inside for most of the race, #1 Olendon created her own trouble by endeavoring to jump the hedge on the far turn, which caused her to crash into another rival (and shut off Coral Beach in the process).

It’s unclear whether Coral Beach or Olendon have the ability to challenge Concrete Rose with clean runs, but they didn’t get a chance to show their best in the Belmont Oaks. Olendon in particular might be capable of a much better run, since her previous form in France was solid and culminated with a runner-up effort in the 1 1/4-mile Prix Saint Alary (G1) at Longchamp.

Following the Belmont Oaks, Olendon was transferred to of trainer , who performs fantastic work with fillies and mares on grass. Recognizing how greenly Olendon ran in the Belmont Oaks, Brown has chosen to equip the filly with blinkers for the Saratoga Oaks. She’ll also race on Lasix for the first time and pick up the services of reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

Concrete Rose still looms as the most likely winner of the Saratoga Oaks, but maybe it’s worth playing one small trifecta ticket with Olendon on top, just in case a clean trip leads to a much-improved performance.

$10 trifecta: 5 with 1 with 2,3 ($20) $5 trifecta: 1 with 5 with 2,3 ($10)

Good luck!