How to bet the 2019 Sugar Bowl Stakes

If you examine the past performances for Saturday’s $75,000 Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds, it’s easy to land on #2 Gold Street as the horse to beat.

The 2-1 morning-line favorite in this six-furlong dash for juveniles, Gold Street lost his first three starts, but did so against quality company. The fourth start proved to be the charm, as Gold Street delivered an eye-catching victory sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs. Favored at 7-10 the son of Street Boss pressed the pace, took command at the top of the stretch and pulled away to score by seven lengths.

It looks like an excellent performance on paper, and the 90 Brisnet speed rating Gold Street received is respectable. But when you analyze the replay, it appears Gold Street’s dominance was partly the result of his rivals' struggles. The track was sloppy and sealed, so it’s possible Gold Street was the only colt who enjoyed the footing.

In contrast #1 Shashashakemeup made a great visual impression in his debut sprinting seven furlongs November 17 at Churchill Downs. Sent straight to the lead by jockey James Graham, Shashashakemeup was passed around the turn by heavy favorite Lonely Private, but when Graham asked Shashashakemeup to fight back, his mount found another gear and re-broke to pull away and win by 5 1/2 lengths.

Shashashakemeup ran straight and true down the lane, which gave a very professional impression and earned a 90 Brisnet speed rating equal to Gold Street’s best. Trainer Keith Desormeaux rarely wins with first-time starters, so for Shashashakemeup to run so impressively on debut is noteworthy.

A Calumet Farm homebred, Shashashakemeup is bred to thrive running long, though there’s no reason to think he can’t be successful cutting back to six furlongs for the Sugar Bowl. Talent allows horses to excel under less-than-perfect circumstances, and Shashashakemeup appears to have a world of talent. A half-mile workout in :47 4/5 on December 14 suggests he is ready for another big run.

If Shashashakemeup’s 5-2 morning line odds hold up, a win bet will be in order. But if his price drops, we’ll play him on top of a trifecta with Gold Street keyed for second and third.

$9 trifecta: 1 with 2 with 3,4 ($18) $6 trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 2 ($12)

Good luck!