How to bet the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby

The $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) will be run at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles. It is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and will award 50 points to the winner, 20 points to the second-place finisher, 10 points to the third-place finisher and five points to the fourth-place finisher. It has drawn a full field of 11 where post position will be important. FREE Tampa Bay Derby PPs courtesy of Brisnet.com! ADMIRE (#1) (12-1) broke his maiden second time out going nine furlongs on a sloppy Churchill Downs main track in an off-the-turf event to close out his juvenile campaign in November. Trainer Dale Romans got ambitious next out and shipped the Cairo Prince colt to Aqueduct for the Withers Stakes (G3), where he ran one-paced to be fifth on the wire after going nine furlongs in fast time. He should be fit from those efforts, shows a :59 and change breeze for this and draws the rail with Robby Albarado. SIR WINSTON (#2) (12-1) broke his maiden in his Tapeta debut up at Woodbine before returning for a good third there in the Grey Stakes (G3). Trainer Mark Casse added blinkers next time out and the Awesome Again colt won the Display Stakes going this distance. Last out in the Withers, he rallied from far back and should be forwardly placed in this spot from the inside. LORD DRAGON (#3) (30-1) took six starts to break his maiden, which he did here going two turns by a head last out on January 25, and looks hopelessly overmatched. DREAM MAKER (#4) (4-1) broke his maiden first time out back in June at Churchill Downs going 5 1/2 furlongs. He was soundly beaten in his next two starts, the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Breeders' Futurity (G1), to finish the year but came back three months later at Fair Grounds and beat allowance foes by over eight lengths. The son of Tapit continues to train well and gets Florent Geroux back aboard. WELL DEFINED (#5) (7-2) beat Florida Stallion Series foes last September but then lost all chance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) when he broke awkwardly at 9-1. In the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, he pressed an insane fast pace (+19, +17) before weakening, but bounced back here last out when blinkers were added to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) by almost three lengths in fast time. OUTSHINE (#6) (8-1) broke his maiden back in May at Belmont Park going five furlongs on a sloppy track, then raced evenly in the Tremont Stakes. Off for over eight months, he came back at Gulfstream Park and won going seven furlongs in good time when Todd Pletcher added blinkers for the first time. Now he tries to move up in class and distance with Joel Rosario back aboard. WIN WIN WIN (#7) (5-2) won his first two starts going short at Laurel Park for Mike Trombetta, then came back with a good second in the Heft Stakes going seven furlongs. He showed up here last out to win the Pasco Stakes in track-record time going seven furlongs and now tries two turns. The Hat Trick colt has no trouble passing horses and should be able to stalk the pace with new rider Irad Ortiz Jr. THE RIGHT PATH (#8) (15-1) looked sharp winning his career debut going six furlongs at Aqueduct and came back with a rough-trip going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park behind Outshine most recently. The son of the red-hot Quality Road should have no trouble stretching out with Joe Bravo. DUNPH (#9) (20-1) looked good to begin his career with two wins but ran terribly in two of his next three starts. I keep waiting for trainer Mike Maker to switch this one to the turf. TACITUS (#10) (12-1) is a very well-bred Juddmonte Farms colorbearer who was a terrific fourth at Belmont Park going 1 1/16 miles at one turn. It was a strong debut for a Bill Mott debut runner and the Tapit colt showed it was no fluke next out when he broke his maiden at 3-5 going a one-turn mile. With two races under his belt, he tries two turns with Lasix added. Jose Ortiz rides back and gets in with 117 pounds. ZENDEN (#11) (8-1) won his first two career starts going short at Gulfstream Park, then came back with a good second in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes (G3). He stretches out to two turns from post 11 and could be a pace factor if sent. ANALYSIS Well Defined looks like the key horse in here and we will use him accordingly. Win/Place #5 Exacta #6, #7, #10 with #5 PHOTO: Well Defined wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs under jockey Pablo Morales on February 9, 2019 (c) SV Photography