How to bet the 2020 Saratoga Derby

I suppose in theory, there are ways #2 Decorated Invader could lose Saturday’s $500,000 Saratoga Derby going 1 3/16 miles on turf at Saratoga. I’m just having trouble envisioning the circumstances where such a defeat would occur.

A son of Group 1-winning turf star and hot young sire Declaration of War, Decorated Invader has won five of his seven starts for trainer Christophe Clement.

His two defeats have come under challenging circumstances. In his debut at Saratoga last summer, he was compromised by a slow pace and rallied to miss by less than a length, and in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), he raced extremely wide around the far turn and charged late to finish fourth by just 1 1/2 lengths.

Otherwise, Decorated Invader has been unstoppable.

An easy winner of the 1-mile Summer (G1) over yielding ground at Woodbine in September, Decorated Invader is 3-for-3 in 2020. He has rattled off victories over firm turf in the Cutler Bay S., the Pennine Ridge (G2), and the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2).

The latter race was held over 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga, just a sixteenth shorter than the Saratoga Derby, and Decorated Invader showed impressive versatility to secure the victory.

Normally a late runner, Decorated Invader wound up in second place for much of the journey, as longshot Get Smokin opened up a huge lead, through slow splits of :23.85, :48.98, and 1:13.52. Decorated Invader was faced with the difficult task of reeling in a loose leader without setting the race up for a deep closer, but he handled both tasks with aplomb. He rallied confidently to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths.

With multiple running styles at his disposal, and with jockey Joel Rosario (a 24% winner at Saratoga) aboard, Decorated Invader will be tough to beat in the Saratoga Derby. He’ll be a short price, but I’m not keen to bet against him. I’d rather play him on top of a trifecta to boost the payoff, if he wins as expected.

Underneath, four-time stakes winner #7 Field Pass is an obvious contender, after he rallied to victory in the 1 1/16-mile Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland. The son of Lemon Drop Kid is bred to handle 1 3/16 miles and has gone 4-for-5 this year for trainer Mike Maker.

Decorated Invader’s own stablemate, #5 Gufo, is also worthy of respect. He has unleashed powerful rallies to win four straight races on grass, including the 1 1/8-mile Kent (G3) at Delaware Park.

#3 No Word, #4 Domestic Spending, and #6 Colonel Liam will round out our tickets.

$6 trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with 5,7 ($12)
$3 trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with 2,4,6 ($18)
Total: $30

Good luck!